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Israel

Limited room for manoeuvre · updated 4 November 2026

What they did

On 3 November Trump said Netanyahu had proposed ending roughly 4 billion dollars a year in US aid at the end of 2026; the Israeli government did not confirm the timetable. The 2016 memorandum provides 38 billion dollars through 2028. In the election count Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats and the opposition 48; official results are expected on 4 November.

Why

In January Netanyahu said he wanted to bring US military aid down to zero over 10 years. According to Al Jazeera, the House of Representatives rejected an amendment cutting the aid by 314 votes to 104 in July; the funds depend on congressional appropriation. No bloc reached 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

What they must do

It must protect the missile-defence component of the 3.8 billion dollars in annual aid, assemble a 61-seat coalition, and keep its Iran decision coordinated with Washington's post-election timetable.

What comes next

The official result on 4 November and Herzog's consultations come first. Second, according to AP, is Netanyahu's pressure on Trump for a new Iran operation after the 3 November election. Third is clarification of the aid timetable by the Prime Minister's Office.

Preference

For Netanyahu, a right-wing and religious coalition that removes the Iranian threat by military means, together with the United States.

Observed behaviour

The Prime Minister's Office did not respond to the aid announcement on 3 November, catching institutions unprepared; in Washington Netanyahu is pushing the military option against Iran.

Sources

  1. Jerusalem Post — Donald Trump: Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to end $4 billion in US aid to Israel by end of 2026
  2. Al Jazeera — Trump says US will stop giving Israel aid after year-end
  3. CBS News — Iran plays down hope for deal to end war after new U.S. strikes on eve of midterm elections

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