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MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints24 September 2026, Thursday

Bangladesh seeks a new agreement with a dry-season guarantee instead of extending the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which expires on 12 December

Bangladesh's Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee said in Dhaka on 24 September that the country wants not a simple extension of the 30-year Ganges treaty but a new agreement guaranteeing its share of water in the January–May dry season. The treaty expires on 12 December 2026.

Location: DHAKA

According to a report by The Climate Watch dated 24 September, Anee announced at the Kollolini 2026 river dialogue, supported by the European Union, AFD, the Netherlands, GIZ and Switzerland, that a proposal was being prepared for a new text to secure dry-season sharing at the Farakka Barrage, replacing the treaty signed in 1996 for 30 years that expires on 12 December 2026. According to a Views Bangladesh report the same day, the minister said that without adequate water security in January–May, agriculture, fisheries and the wider economy would be at serious risk; Bangladesh had previously demanded the return of the guarantee clause that featured in the 1977 agreement but was dropped from the 1996 text. The minister also said Bangladesh would take a firm stance on flood damage caused by uncontrolled flows during the monsoon.

India's position draws a different framework: as reported by The Business Standard, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on 4 August 2026 that talks would proceed through the existing mechanism, that the two countries share 54 common rivers and that the Joint Rivers Commission is the venue for this work. According to the same report, Bangladesh's Minister of State Shama Obaed Islam had said on 9 July that negotiations were progressing positively. According to Views Bangladesh, domestic and foreign feasibility studies for the Teesta project are under way, and the financing model will be determined by the results. The specific flow figure Bangladesh will demand was not included in the 24 September statements; the numerical framework of its negotiating position therefore could not be verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

With roughly 11 weeks left before the treaty expires, Dhaka is raising the bar: seeking a new text with a guarantee clause rather than a simple extension runs counter to India's preference for a technical extension within the existing commission framework. The most likely path is for a gap to be avoided before 12 December through an interim extension or a memorandum of principles, with the permanent text slipping into 2027.

Likely effects

  • Bangladesh agricultureNegative1–6 months

    If sharing at Farakka remains uncertain in the January–May dry season, agriculture and fisheries are directly affected, adding food price risk to household budgets already squeezed by fuel price rises.

  • India–Bangladesh relationsNegative6 months+

    A lapse of the treaty on 12 December, together with India's 2025 decision to suspend the Indus treaty, would call into question the reliability of water agreements in the region.

  • Development financeUncertain1–6 months

    Support for the dialogue from the EU and European development agencies shows that non-Chinese financing options are being kept on the table for projects such as Teesta.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Interim extension, permanent text in 202750%

    The Joint Rivers Commission produces an arrangement before 12 December that temporarily continues current sharing, while negotiation of a new treaty stretches into 2027.

    Watch: Joint Rivers Commission meeting date and joint statement text

  2. 2
    New treaty before December25%

    Political will forms at prime ministerial level and a new treaty with a guarantee clause is signed before December.

    Watch: An India–Bangladesh prime ministers' meeting and the West Bengal government's stance

  3. 3
    Treaty gap25%

    The parties fail to agree on the guarantee clause, the 1996 treaty expires without extension and dry-season sharing is left without a legal basis.

    Watch: No formal extension or new text announced by 12 December 2026

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Treaty expiry▼ 12 December 2026
  • Shared rivers▲ 54
  • Critical dry season▼ January–May

Sources

  1. The Climate Watch — Bangladesh seeks new Ganges treaty as 1996 pact nears expiry: Minister
  2. Views Bangladesh — Bangladesh wants new Ganges water-sharing deal with India: Minister
  3. The Business Standard — Ganges water sharing talks to take place under existing bilateral mechanism: India