IN · Government · RBI · South Asia

India

Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 6 November 2026

What they did

In its CIAD-2026-0058 advisory of 4 November, CERT-In declared the Crafty Falcon group, which targets non-bank finance companies and crypto exchanges, an active threat. The group automates its attack chain with four AI-assisted tools and runs a 1 rupee test before large transfers. A Rhodium report of 27 October found that about 80% of subsidised GPUs sit idle, despite data centre commitments exceeding 300 billion dollars in a single year. The government is weighing binding patch powers for CERT-In.

Why

Kpler data show India bought 1.82 million barrels a day of Russian crude in September, with Urals at a 23 dollar discount to Brent; Russia's import share fell to 35% from as much as 56% in July. Reserves fell from a peak of 785.71 billion dollars on 4 September to 726.03 billion in the week of 9 October, losing 59.7 billion in five weeks; the RBI's forward dollar liabilities were about 200 billion at end-September. PPAC data show the crude bill rose 46.3% to 90.6 billion dollars in April–September, while volume rose only to 122.7 million tonnes.

What they must do

Because the US waiver can be revoked with a single signature, it must keep Russian oil purchases at a level that does not derail trade talks with Washington; lifting US crude purchases from 207,000 barrels a day in September to 568,000 in October is its tool for that balance. It needs to shift the burden of defending the rupee from reserves to rates and tighter liquidity, and to finance an oil bill above 18 billion dollars a month through export growth.

What comes next

The RBI's 2–4 December meeting will be a choice between a hike and a hold; the minutes project 6.0% inflation in the third quarter. The fortnightly levy review in mid-November will test the balance on diesel exports. Signing the first tranche with the US and the timetable for the EU deal are the main knots. On the cyber front, watch the draft giving CERT-In binding patch powers, whether any PHP2Shell breach is confirmed, and an estimated 3 billion rupee loss at small finance firms.

Preference

Strategic autonomy: gain access to the US market without fully cutting off Russian oil; let the rupee weaken in a controlled way while protecting reserves.

Observed behaviour

It keeps buying Russian oil, driven by price but without interruption, and uses US barrels as a bargaining chip at the trade table. It manages diesel with a fortnightly levy; on the currency it eases through liquidity injections while the repo rate stands at 5.50%.

Sources

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