MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security11 October 2026, Sunday · 12:34 TRT (UTC+3)

Bangladesh's first nuclear reactor reaches criticality at Rooppur

The 1,200 MW Unit 1 at the Rosatom-built Rooppur plant achieved its first controlled chain reaction on 11 October. The first 300 MW is due to reach the grid in December, giving a country still short of LNG its first domestic baseload capacity.

Location: ROOPPUR

Md Anwar Hossain, secretary at the Ministry of Science and Technology, told The Business Standard that the reaction began smoothly at 15:34 local time on 11 October. The Daily Star reports that the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority issued the B-2 commissioning licence the previous Thursday, and that the physical start-up phase, including first criticality, will take 30–40 days. According to Prothom Alo, the reaction was first planned for September 2026, but defects found in high-pressure tests of safety valves pushed back the schedule.

The two units, built with Russian VVER-1200 technology, have a combined capacity of 2,400 MW. Prothom Alo says the cost of the plant has risen by 260 billion taka to 1.39 trillion taka because of currency depreciation. Power can only be fed to the grid once output reaches 30% of capacity, and the first 300 MW is scheduled for December.

Prothom Alo reported on 14 September that daily gas demand stood at 3.8 billion cubic feet against supply of 2.37 billion. The same report said night-time load-shedding had exceeded 3,000 MW and spot LNG had risen above $28 per million BTU in September. TBS reported on 12 October that the energy minister discussed possible LNG and LPG memoranda with the Algerian ambassador that day. Rooppur's 1,200 MW is the first item that can cover part of the spot-LNG gap with a fuel independent of Hormuz.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Rooppur adds the first baseload to Bangladesh's LNG-dependent power system that does not hinge on the Hormuz crisis. The near-term effect is limited: the first 300 MW arrives in December at the earliest and the ramp to the full 1,200 MW is gradual. The 1.39 trillion taka cost and reliance on Russia for technology and fuel diversify energy security while creating a new external dependency. The likeliest path is progress with a slippage of a few weeks.

Likely effects

Power supplyPositive1–6 months
The first 300 MW grid feed covers only a small share of a load-shedding gap that exceeded 3,000 MW in mid-September; the effect grows at full capacity.
LNG importsPositive6 months+
1,200 MW of nuclear baseload can cut demand for LNG, whose spot price topped $28 in September, and ease foreign-currency outflows.
External dependencyNegative6 months+
Technology and fuel for both units depend on Rosatom; while sanctions on Russia persist, spare parts and fuel supply remain a separate risk.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Commissioning with a short delay60%
Physical start-up ends within 30–40 days and the first 300 MW enters the grid in late December or January.
Watch: BAERA's power-ascension approval and the announcement of first grid synchronisation
2
On schedule25%
Tests pass without issue and 300 MW is delivered to the grid in December.
Watch: A Rooppur line in the Bangladesh Power Development Board's December generation data
3
New technical setback15%
A valve or equipment problem delays power ascension by months.
Watch: A postponement statement from the ministry or Rosatom

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Unit capacity▲ 1,200 MW
Plant cost▼ 1.39 trillion taka

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources