What they did
On the night of 5 November it launched 2 guided missiles from the Black Sea and 128 long-range drones, 65 of them jet-powered, at Ukraine; 18 locations were hit. The same night, according to Governor Malkov, the Ryazan region came under attack from more than 200 drones, and Rosneft's Ryazan refinery became the fifth plant targeted since 30 October. The Kremlin will join the Abu Dhabi round on 10–11 November with Medinsky leading the delegation.
Why
It is answering Ukraine's strikes on refineries and data centres with military pressure and infrastructure backup; three Yandex data centres were hit in October. It goes to the table demanding the handover of all of Donetsk. Lukoil's overseas portfolio, initially valued at 22 billion dollars, is passing to a US-led group through a swap that collects frozen securities at 30 cents on the dollar.
What they must do
It must keep domestic infrastructure running despite refinery and data centre losses; hold to its territorial demand in Abu Dhabi without closing the channel to Washington; keep sanctions relief on the table while accepting a cashless transfer of Lukoil's assets; and finance a record defence budget.
What comes next
Watch the three-way round in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, repair times at Ryazan and the other refineries, possible curbs on fuel exports, US Treasury approval of the Lukoil swap, and the budget's second reading.
Preference
Use energy and grain exports as tools of rapprochement with the United States; agree a maritime ceasefire only as part of a package that covers other sectors too.
Observed behaviour
It is widening the tax base while raising defence spending, and trying to puncture sanctions pressure through bilateral energy deals with the United States.
Sources
- Kyiv Independent — Russian attacks kill 9, injure 19 across Ukraine over past day
- Kyiv Independent — Drone attack sparks fires at industrial facilities in Russia's Ryazan
- Euromaidan Press — Five refineries in a week: drones set Russia's Ryazan fuel plant on fire
- The Moscow Times — Putin Orders Private Data Centers to Set Aside 10% of Capacity to Support IT Infrastructure
- The Moscow Times — U.S.-Mediated Ukraine Peace Talks to Resume in Abu Dhabi Next Week
- Report.az — Reuters: US billionaire leads securities swap plan to buy Lukoil's overseas assets
- Kyiv Independent — 'Exceptionally horrific strike': Russian bombs strike school used as humanitarian aid center
- Meduza — Ukrainian drone strike sparks major fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries
- UNITED24 Media — Ukraine Hits 10% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity in Just 72 Hours
- UA.News — Russia launched strikes on energy facilities in ten regions of Ukraine
- gCaptain (Reuters) — War Widens in the Black Sea in a Test of NATO Red Lines
- BusinessDay (Reuters) — Black Sea attacks test Nato resolve as strikes surge
- The Moscow Times — State Duma Passes Record Defense Spending Budget in First Reading
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