LowVI Energy Politics & Supply Security3 October 2026, Saturday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Bayraktar says draft law on small modular reactors is ready
Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in Şanlıurfa on 3 October that a draft framework law on small modular reactors (SMRs) is ready. It will go to parliament after the budget debate, and Akkuyu is expected to start generating power within a few months.
Bayraktar made the remarks at TEKNOFEST Southeast, held from 30 September to 4 October. According to Bigpara, the law will set a framework for developing, financing and safeguarding the SMR sector. An SMR is a small nuclear reactor built in factory-made modules, typically under 300 megawatts. The minister said the aim is to pass the draft into law within this legislative year.
Türkiye's 2050 target is 20,000 megawatts of installed nuclear capacity. The first step, the Akkuyu plant, is expected to produce its first electricity within a few months, though the minister gave no firm date. According to Bigpara, Bayraktar also said a 2040 energy vision aimed at energy independence will be unveiled in the coming weeks. According to Yeşil Haber, the first SMR is expected in the early 2030s; this timetable could not be confirmed by an official document.
According to AA, the research reactor at Çekmece in Istanbul will restart after about 20 years. The ministry is sending students to Russia, China and the US for nuclear training. The nuclear energy competition at TEKNOFEST is in its 3rd year, with 192 teams taking part this year. As of 3 October, the law's provisions on licensing, site selection and waste management had not been disclosed.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The draft law seeks a legal footing for Türkiye's target of 20,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050. On the supply side, the only concrete near-term step is Akkuyu's first electricity, which is still a few months away and has no firm date. Any effect of SMRs on the energy import bill is unlikely before the 2030s, so the announcement does not change today's energy deficit.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's energy importsPositive6 months+
Once Akkuyu's first unit comes online it will cut power generation's reliance on imported gas; no SMR contribution is expected before the 2030s.
- Investment and financingUncertain6 months+
If the law's financing framework includes state guarantees or purchase commitments, it could saddle the public budget with lasting liabilities; details have not been released.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Law passes this legislative year50%
The draft reaches parliament after the budget debate and becomes law before summer 2027.
Watch: Submission of the draft to parliament as a bill
- 2Draft slips beyond 202735%
The fund crisis and the budget crowd the parliamentary calendar, and the law does not pass this legislative year.
Watch: The bill failing to reach committee by June 2027
- 3Akkuyu is delayed too15%
Akkuyu's first electricity slips beyond the end of 2026, pushing back the entire nuclear timetable.
Watch: An official statement on Akkuyu's first grid connection
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- 2050 nuclear capacity target▲ 20,000 MW
- Time Çekmece reactor stood idle▲ ≈20 years
- Teams in nuclear competition▲ 192