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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionSub-Saharan Africa

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday

Fighting in Ethiopia spreads to Afar and Amhara: TPLF declares 'full-blown war', army says it killed 272 TPLF fighters in North Wollo

The offensive launched by Tigrayan forces on 23 September spread to the Afar and Amhara regions on 24 September. The TPLF deputy chairman described the situation as 'full-blown war'; the federal army said it had killed 272 TPLF fighters and wounded 260 in North Wollo, a figure that could not be independently verified.

Location: AFAR

According to an Al Jazeera report dated 24 September, fighting spread from Tigray to the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, and Abala, a district centre in Afar, was reported captured. According to a Kulu Media report dated 24 September based on AFP, TPLF Deputy Chairman Amanuel Assefa said on 24 September that they were in a state of 'full-blown war'; fighting was reported to be continuing around Yallo, Abala and Erebti in Afar and in the North Wollo zone of Amhara. According to Oman Observer, the Ethiopian army said it had killed 272 TPLF fighters in North Wollo; Kulu Media also reports a figure of 260 wounded, and neither figure could be independently verified. According to Oman Observer, Lalibela airport was also closed; according to Rio Times, Tigrayan forces had taken the airports of Mekelle, Axum and Shire on 23 September, and Ethiopian Airlines had suspended flights to these 3 airports.

According to an AP report dated 24 September published by The Philadelphia Inquirer, the African Union and IGAD called for de-escalation; the US ambassador in Addis Ababa expressed disappointment at the TPLF's 'large-scale offensive'. On 20 September the TPLF and 6 groups had formed a 7-member alliance aimed at toppling the Abiy government. Sources conflict on the death toll of the 2020–2022 war: AP, citing researchers, gives 500,000 civilian deaths, while Oman Observer, citing an African Union estimate, gives more than 600,000 dead. According to Al Jazeera, citing UN data, around 750,000 people in Tigray remain displaced from the previous war.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The spread of the fighting to Afar and Amhara within 24 hours suggests that Tigrayan forces are targeting supply lines, as in the 2020–2022 war. While the 7-group alliance multiplies the fronts, the army's announcement of 272 dead shows that the parties have also entered an information war. The most likely path is a multi-front war of attrition lasting weeks, with African Union–IGAD mediation failing to deliver results in the near term.

Likely effects

  • Ethiopian economyNegativeWeeks

    The fighting in Afar is close to the Djibouti corridor through which Ethiopia's foreign trade passes; the risk of disruption to fuel and import flows adds to inflation and foreign currency shortages.

  • Horn of Africa securityNegative1–6 months

    Given Eritrea's and Sudan's ties to different parties, there is a risk of the conflict turning into a regional war; instability on the western shore of the Red Sea would deepen.

  • Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks

    A new wave of displacement adds to the roughly 750,000 people still displaced from the previous war; airport closures narrow humanitarian access.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Multi-front attrition55%

    Fighting continues for weeks in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, with front lines frequently changing hands.

    Watch: Reports on control of towns in North Wollo and Afar

  2. 2
    Push towards the corridor and capital25%

    Tigrayan forces cut the Djibouti road or railway, disrupting supplies to Addis Ababa.

    Watch: A halt to services on the Addis Ababa–Djibouti road or railway

  3. 3
    Ceasefire through mediation20%

    An African Union and IGAD initiative secures a ceasefire within a matter of weeks.

    Watch: Announcement that the parties have entered talks under African Union supervision

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Deaths claimed by the army▼ 272 (unverified)
  • Airports closed/seized▼ 4
  • Displaced▼ ~750,000

Sources

  1. Al Jazeera — Fighting widens across Ethiopia as Tigray clashes escalate
  2. Oman Observer — Ethiopia faces renewed war as Tigray rebels attack
  3. Kulu Media — TPLF says 'full-blown war' underway as fighting spreads to Afar and Amhara
  4. The Philadelphia Inquirer (AP) — New fighting in northern Ethiopia effectively shatters 2022 peace
  5. Rio Times — Tigray offensive in Ethiopia: airports seized, flights halted