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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionSub-Saharan Africa

HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

Fighting in Ethiopia reaches Lalibela and flights are halted; TPLF detains 4 senior commanders who opposed the new war

Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to UNESCO-listed Lalibela on 24 September; in its first official statement the army said it had killed, wounded or captured more than 500 fighters. According to Reuters, the same night gunmen detained 4 senior Tigray commanders sceptical of the new war, among them former commander-in-chief Tadesse Werede.

Location: LALIBELA

According to a Reuters report published by TimesLIVE on 25 September, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Lalibela airport in the Amhara region on Thursday (24 September); a diplomatic source said fighting was continuing around the town but had not yet entered it. According to the same report, in its first statement on the fighting the Ethiopian army said it had repelled the attacks and neutralised more than 500 fighters; Lieutenant General Assefa Chekol gave figures of 272 dead and 260 wounded. Foreign Policy reports the same 260 people as 'captured'; the figures could not be independently verified. Food stockpiling was reported in Mekele and Adigrat, and a rush on cash withdrawals in Lalibela.

According to a Reuters report dated 25 September and republished on Martin Plaut's site, gunmen detained 4 senior military leaders overnight; among them is Tadesse Werede, who was commander-in-chief of Tigray forces in the 2020–2022 war. According to Kulu Media, the detentions stem from their scepticism about the new war; the guards at Tadesse's residence were replaced and his family's movements restricted. Sources give the date of the detention variously as the night of 23 September or the night of 24 September.

According to information attributed to ACLED in Martin Plaut's 25 September live feed, on the Tekeze front fighting in May Gaba and Tselimo continued until 14:00 local time, new fighting broke out near Yallo in Afar, Ethiotelecom has been out of service in Tigray since 22:00, and in Sheraro a drone strike hit near the Adi Abay camp for displaced people. According to Africanews, President Taye Atske Selassie blamed 'external actors' at the UN General Assembly; his remarks targeted Egypt and Eritrea.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

As of 25 September the front has crossed Tigray's borders and reached the Amhara interior at places such as Lalibela; at the same time the TPLF signalled internal division by detaining 4 senior figures, including the commander-in-chief of the 2020–2022 war. The army's claim of 500+ casualties and the communications blackout indicate that the fighting will not subside quickly, while the rupture within the command suggests the TPLF's capacity to sustain a protracted war may be limited. Eritrea being named from the UN rostrum keeps the risk of regionalisation alive.

Likely effects

  • Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks

    The closure of 4 airports and the Ethiotelecom outage in Tigray are narrowing the flow of aid and information; stockpiling in Mekele and Adigrat raises the risk of rapid food price increases.

  • Regional securityNegative1–6 months

    The President pointing to Egypt and Eritrea at the UN raises the likelihood of the conflict merging with the Red Sea and Nile files and turning into an interstate crisis.

  • TPLF command structureNegative1–6 months

    The detention of 4 senior figures including former commander-in-chief Tadesse Werede shows the decision-making core of Tigray forces narrowing and internal opposition to the war being suppressed; this may tighten discipline at the front in the near term but raises the risk of defections over the medium term.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    War of attrition55%

    Fighting continues along the Tigray–Afar–Amhara line, flight and communications outages last for weeks, and the parties contradict each other on casualty figures.

    Watch: Whether flights to Lalibela and Mekele resume

  2. 2
    Rupture within the TPLF30%

    The detentions deepen divisions in Tigray forces, some units defect to the federal side and the front contracts.

    Watch: The status of the detained commanders and new defection announcements

  3. 3
    Direct Eritrean entry15%

    Movements in Western Tigray turn into open Eritrean intervention and the conflict takes on an interstate dimension.

    Watch: Verified reports of Eritrean troops in Western Tigray and along the Tekeze line

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Lalibela flights▼ suspended
  • Casualties claimed by the army▼ 500+ fighters
  • Tigray commanders detained▼ 4

Sources

  1. TimesLIVE (Reuters) — Flights suspended to Ethiopian holy town of Lalibela as fighting expands
  2. Martin Plaut (Reuters) — Flush with allies, Tigray's leaders face internal discord in new Ethiopia war
  3. Kulu Media — Tadesse Werede detained with 3 Tigray military leaders
  4. Martin Plaut — Ethiopia conflict live updates
  5. Africanews — Ethiopian president warns of interference amid renewed Tigray fighting
  6. Foreign Policy — Ethiopia and the TPLF return to war in Tigray