LowIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday
Morocco appoints first female prime minister, 101 seats short of a majority
On 29 September King Mohammed VI appointed Fatima Zahra El Mansouri as prime minister. She leads PAM, which came first in the election with 97 seats. A majority in the 395-seat parliament requires 198 seats.
Anadolu Agency reported on 29 September that the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) won 97 of the 395 seats in the 23 September election. The National Rally of Independents (RNI) took 66 seats, the Istiqlal Party 65 and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) 54. El Mansouri became the country's first female prime minister and will begin coalition talks to reach the 198-seat majority. She was elected Marrakesh's first female mayor in 2009.
According to Al-Monitor's election report, turnout fell to 38% from about 50% in 2021. During the campaign PAM pledged 37 billion dollars of spending to create 1 million new jobs. The PJD raised its seat count from 13 to 54. Morocco is also carrying out 20 billion dollars of infrastructure investment to host the 2030 World Cup. How the spending pledge would be financed could not be verified, as the sources do not explain it.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The appointment is historic in symbolic terms, but the real test is building a coalition in a fragmented parliament and reconciling the 37 billion dollar spending pledge with the budget. The fall in turnout to 38% and the PJD's gains show that the backlash against the cost of living continues. The most likely outcome is a broad but fragile coalition with the RNI and Istiqlal.
Likely effects
- Moroccan public financesNegative1–6 months
A large spending pledge coinciding with World Cup investment puts pressure on the budget deficit.
- Political stabilityUncertain1–6 months
Low turnout and a stronger opposition narrow the new government's room for reform.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
The free trade agreement with Morocco and textile competition stay on the agenda; the new government's trade policy will affect Turkish exporters.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Broad coalition60%
PAM secures a majority with the RNI and Istiqlal.
Watch: Announcement of the coalition protocol
- 2Protracted bargaining30%
The division of ministries takes weeks, and the budget timetable is squeezed.
Watch: The date the 2027 budget bill is submitted to parliament
- 3Minority government or deadlock10%
No coalition can be formed, and the king looks for another name.
Watch: Statements from the palace
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- PAM seats▲ 97 / 395
- Election turnout▼ 38%
- Spending pledge▼ $37 billion