MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence13 October 2026, Tuesday
Gaza's death toll reaches 1,493 in the ceasefire's first year
Gaza's health ministry says Israeli attacks killed 1,493 people and wounded 5,299 between the start of the ceasefire in October 2025 and 12 October. An air strike on a vehicle in Gaza City's Tuffah district on 13 October killed one person; the same day the US State Department said there was real progress on disarmament.
According to Al Jazeera's weekly round-up on 13 October, the toll stood at 1,460 a week earlier; the total since October 2023 has reached 74,382. The ceasefire turned one year old on 10 October, and more than 100 humanitarian and rights groups said it exists in name only. Israel controls about two-thirds of the Gaza Strip, whereas the arrangement envisaged that share staying at around 50%. Aid lorries are entering at roughly a third of the agreed rate, and the international stabilisation force has not deployed in a year.
According to the Times of Israel live blog on 13 October, the Israeli military said recent strikes had killed five militants, three of them Islamic Jihad members in Khan Younis on 11 October. The same day a US State Department official said real progress had been made on disarming Gaza but that reconstruction would be difficult. Al Jazeera reports that Palestinian President Abbas has postponed next month's legislative elections to September 2027; Israel holds a general election on 27 October.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The ceasefire did not stop the fighting in Gaza; it turned it into a low-intensity conflict, with 33 deaths a week and Israeli control over two-thirds of the strip. Washington measures progress by disarmament, while indicators on the ground lag behind the commitments on aid and a stabilisation force. The 27 October Israeli election and the postponed Palestinian vote suggest the second phase will wait at least several more months.
Likely effects
- Humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
With aid lorries entering at a third of the agreed rate and no stabilisation force deployed, the shelter and health crisis deepens before winter.
- Regional diplomacyNegative1–6 months
The 1,493 deaths in Gaza make it harder for Gulf capitals to justify coordination with the US in the Iran war to their own publics.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-intensity conflict persists60%
Weekly deaths stay in the tens, the ceasefire formally holds, and the second phase is pushed beyond the 27 October election.
Watch: The health ministry's weekly ceasefire-period death toll
- 2Ceasefire collapses25%
A major attack or reprisal restarts large-scale operations.
Watch: An Israeli military announcement of a new ground operation in Gaza
- 3Second phase accelerates15%
The stabilisation force deploys and aid entry approaches the agreed rate.
Watch: The first troops of the international stabilisation force entering Gaza
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Killed since truce (12 Oct)▼ 1,493
- Weekly increase▼ +33