MediumII Cyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure15 October 2026, Thursday
A 380km fibre link under the Caspian goes live
On 15 October Tokayev and Aliyev opened a trans-Caspian fibre-optic link of roughly 380km connecting Aktau and Sumgayit. Kazakhstan puts its design capacity at more than 400 Tbps.
According to the Astana Times, the two leaders brought the link into service at an online ceremony after talks in Baku on 15 October; the project was delivered by Kazakhtelecom and AzerTelecom. The Times of Central Asia says the cable is about 380km long, and Kazakhstan's Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development puts its design capacity above 400 Tbps. The link is part of the Digital Silk Way initiative, which aims to connect China and Central Asia to Europe, and can be tied into Mediterranean and Black Sea subsea cables. The same day the two countries also signed an intergovernmental agreement on the Middle Corridor.
The backdrop is the war's spread to Russian digital infrastructure. Ukrainian drones struck 3 Yandex data centres on 8, 9 and 11 October. According to Türkiye Today, the centre in Vladimir shut down completely and Yandex Go was disrupted in Kazakhstan for 36 hours. Sources speaking to Kommersant said replacing the equipment could take about 6 months. The new link is the first major subsea option for Central Asia's data traffic to Europe that bypasses Russia; how much traffic will shift to it has not been disclosed.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The link gives Central Asia's data traffic its first major backup route outside Russia, and it arrives in the week that attacks on Yandex centres caused a 36-hour outage in Kazakhstan. Capacity above 400 Tbps is large on paper, but carrying traffic depends on completing the Caucasus and Black Sea connections. The most likely path is that the link serves mainly as backup capacity in its first phase.
Likely effects
- Critical infrastructurePositive1–6 months
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan gain a backup route against outages like the 36-hour disruption to services that depend on Russian data centres.
- RussiaNegative6 months+
If part of Central Asia's traffic shifts to the Caspian, Russia's role as the region's data transit hub erodes.
- TürkiyePositive6 months+
If a Mediterranean connection is built, the land crossing would run through Georgia or Türkiye; the Middle Corridor's digital leg leaves a share for Türkiye too.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Remains a backup route55%
The link works, but the bulk of traffic keeps flowing through Russia for some time.
Watch: Kazakhtelecom disclosure of international capacity carried over the link
- 2Traffic begins to shift30%
Fresh attacks and outages push operators to move traffic onto the Caspian route.
Watch: New drone strikes on Russian data centres and outages in Central Asia
- 3Idle capacity15%
The Caucasus and Black Sea connections are delayed and the link stays underused.
Watch: Timetable for the Azerbaijan–Georgia land link and the Black Sea cable
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Cable length▲ 380 km
- Design capacity▲ 400+ Tbps