MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 September 2026, Sunday
RSF drones hit a strategic fuel depot near Wad Madani
Drones of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) struck the Umm Aleyle fuel depot, about 20 km north-east of Wad Madani, capital of Gezira state, on the morning of 27 September. The army carried out air strikes on Nyala the same day, and both sides claimed to have shot down the other's drones.
According to a Dabanga report published by AllAfrica on 27 September, several explosions were heard in Abu Haraz shortly after dawn prayers. The depot stores petrol and diesel distributed across Gezira state. Civil Defence said it had brought the fire under control, that the damage was confined to the petrol and diesel tanks and that it had not spread to other storage areas. No casualties were reported.
Arab News reported on 28 September that the strike was the first reported attack on the city since the army recaptured Wad Madani from the RSF last year. According to the same report, 2 explosions hit Nyala, the capital of South Darfur and the RSF's main base. It was also reported that the US had denied army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan a visa for the UN General Assembly, a move linked to the push for a 3-month ceasefire.
The two sides dispute each other's claims. According to Dabanga, the army said it shot down a Chinese-made FH-95 drone north-east of El Kokiti in North Kordofan, the second that week. The RSF claimed to have downed a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone in the Blue Nile region the same day. Neither claim could be independently verified, and neither the depot's capacity nor the amount of fuel lost has been disclosed.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The RSF strike on fuel infrastructure around Wad Madani, a city the army retook, shows the drone war shifting towards economic targets behind the front line. With Burhan rejecting the US proposal for a 3-month ceasefire, attacks are not expected to ease in the coming weeks. Fuel distribution in Gezira remains exposed to strikes of this kind.
Likely effects
- Fuel supply in central SudanNegativeWeeks
Damage to petrol and diesel tanks could disrupt fuel distribution and farming-season logistics in Gezira state; the amount lost could not be verified.
- Ceasefire diplomacyNegative1–6 months
The US refusal of a visa for Burhan and his rejection of outside pressure weaken the 3-month ceasefire initiative.
- Turkish and Chinese dronesUncertain1–6 months
The rival claims of downed Bayraktar and FH-95 drones show Sudan's war turning into a contest of foreign-supplied drones, creating reputational risk for Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tit-for-tat drone strikes intensify60%
The RSF keeps targeting energy and logistics sites in army-held areas, while the army keeps striking Nyala and Darfur.
Watch: A new strike on fuel or power facilities in central and eastern Sudan
- 2Ceasefire talks reopen25%
Under US pressure the sides return to indirect contact, and the pace of attacks falls temporarily.
Watch: Announcement of a mediation meeting by the US or Saudi Arabia
- 3Ground offensive spreads to Gezira15%
The RSF combines drone strikes with a ground assault on Gezira.
Watch: Reports of ground fighting around Wad Madani
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Depot distance from Wad Madani▼ ~20 km
- Reported casualties▲ 0
- Proposed US ceasefire length▲ 3 months