HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints13 October 2026, Tuesday

Gulf crude exports top September despite mounting Hormuz attacks

UKMTO data cited by Democracy Now show at least 18 attacks on ships in and around Hormuz since the start of October. Yet TankerTrackers says crude exports from seven Gulf states rose to 17.273 million barrels a day in October, from 14.652 million in September.

Location: HORMUZ

UKMTO says a tanker leaving the strait was hit by a projectile on 12 October and its crew is safe; the Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack and said it was the third ship they had struck in two days. The National reports that UKMTO logged attacks on six ships in one day, five of them tankers, including a drone hit at Oman's Sohar anchorage. The US Navy-led JMIC counted at least 12 attacks between 28 September and 5 October, while the IMO recorded nine incidents for the same period; the gap reflects verification methods. A Reuters report cited by Iran International quotes two Iranian officials as saying attacks have been extended to the Gulf of Oman.

Flow data do not move in the same direction as the attack count. Iran International says CENTCOM announced that US forces helped Gulf partners move more than 19 million barrels of crude through the strait on 12 October; the figure is a US military claim and could not be independently verified. TankerTrackers' October average of 17.273 million barrels is about 2.7 times May's 6.488 million; Vortexa puts Iran's October exports at zero under the US blockade. Kpler data cited by the Times of Israel put pre-war Gulf crude exports at an average of 18 million barrels a day.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Attack counts and export volumes are diverging: despite at least 18 attacks in October, TankerTrackers shows Gulf crude exports 17.9% above September. That suggests the attacks are raising cost and risk rather than cutting flows so far. But the data sources conflict, and Iran's signal of expansion into the Gulf of Oman targets the transshipment system; whether the divergence lasts is uncertain.

Likely effects

Tanker freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
Attacks on six ships in a day and the hit at Sohar anchorage bring waiting areas outside the strait into war-risk cover; per-voyage costs rise regardless of volume.
Oil priceUncertainWeeks
With October flows of 17.273 million barrels nearing the pre-war 18 million, what supports the price is disruption risk, not lost barrels; if flows hold, the risk premium stays contained.
Data reliabilityNegativeWeeks
JMIC counts 12 incidents and the IMO nine; CENTCOM's 19-million-barrel claim is unverified. Flow and attack data that vary by source add volatility to pricing.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Attacks continue, flows hold50%
Attacks continue daily, but Gulf exports stay in a 15–18 million barrel-a-day band.
Watch: TankerTrackers and Kpler Gulf export data for the second half of October
2
Gulf of Oman expansion cuts flows35%
Attacks on transshipment and waiting areas increase, and exports drop below 15 million barrels a day.
Watch: UKMTO incident reports around the Gulf of Oman and Fujairah
3
Transit deal curbs attacks15%
A US–Iran transit arrangement cuts attacks to a few incidents a week.
Watch: IMF PortWatch daily Hormuz transit count

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Gulf crude exports (Oct)▲ +17.9% m/m
Ship attacks in October▼ at least 18

Historical context