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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionAsia-Pacific

MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday

Philippine resupply to Second Thomas Shoal halted at 60 nautical miles: Manila cites 3 Chinese warships, Beijing invokes the 2024 provisional arrangement

On 25 September the Philippine Coast Guard accused the China Coast Guard and the Chinese Navy of obstructing the rotation and resupply mission of 24 September. According to the Philippine military, 3 Chinese warships and 5 coast guard vessels stopped the mission 60 nautical miles short of the shoal; China argued the resupply was illegal because it had not been notified in advance.

Location: SECOND THOMAS SHOAL

According to a Reuters report published by Interaksyon on 25 September, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) announced that the China Coast Guard and the People's Liberation Army Navy had obstructed a resupply mission to troops aboard the grounded Second World War-era BRP Sierra Madre, putting Filipino personnel at risk. The PCG said the action was incompatible with international law and the 2016 arbitral award. The report says Manila and Beijing reached a provisional arrangement in 2024 to avoid clashes during resupply operations; in July, allegations of water cannon use near Scarborough and physical contact near Second Thomas had also surfaced.

According to a Manila Times report dated 26 September, Philippine military spokesman Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said the incident took place between 20:35 and 23:00 local time, 60 nautical miles from the shoal, and that the path of MV Lapu-Lapu and the Navy and Coast Guard vessels was cut off by 3 Chinese warships, including 2 Houbei-class missile boats, and 5 coast guard vessels. The mission was temporarily suspended for safety reasons; the military found China's manoeuvres incompatible with COLREG rules. Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro stressed that the 2024 provisional understanding recognises no foreign jurisdiction in Philippine waters. The same report gives the day of the incident as 'Thursday, 26 September'; since 26 September is a Saturday and the other sources give 24 September, this date was treated as contradictory.

According to a 25 September report by the state outlet Global Times, China Coast Guard spokesman Jiang Lue said the 24 September attempt had been timed to coincide with a Chinese holiday, that China had responded with on-site monitoring and verbal warnings, and argued that under the provisional arrangement resupply must be notified to China in advance and approved. According to a separate Global Times report, the Lapu-Lapu and the 3 vessels escorting it were stopped at around 60 nautical miles and turned back. The two sides' accounts coincide on the distance, but only the Philippine side mentions the presence of Chinese warships; this item could not be independently verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 24 September incident exposed that the provisional arrangement which has made resupply predictable since 2024 is read differently by the two sides: Beijing insists on prior notification and approval, while Manila rejects any foreign jurisdiction. The suspension of the mission 60 nautical miles before it reached the shoal has reopened the resupply of the garrison on the Sierra Madre to bargaining. The most likely path is for Manila to try again with a back-up plan and for friction to continue without reaching physical contact.

Likely effects

  • South China Sea securityNegativeWeeks

    The 3 warships and 5 coast guard vessels reported by the Philippine military indicate that the resupply line is now being squeezed not only at coast guard level but also at naval level; the risk of contact in a new attempt is rising.

  • Manila–Beijing diplomacyNegative1–6 months

    Foreign Secretary Lazaro's reading of the 2024 understanding as recognising no jurisdiction clashes with China's approval requirement; if the arrangement is effectively suspended, each resupply becomes a matter of case-by-case bargaining.

  • Türkiye and maritime tradeUncertain1–6 months

    The incident does not directly cut trade routes in the South China Sea; however, tension in the region adds a further risk item for Turkish foreign trade firms monitoring insurance and routing costs on Asian routes.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    New attempt, controlled friction55%

    Manila tries the resupply again with a back-up plan, China limits itself to monitoring and verbal warnings, and the incident closes without physical contact.

    Watch: The next Ayungin resupply announcement by the PCG and the Philippine military

  2. 2
    Escalating interference30%

    A new attempt sees water cannon, ramming or vessel seizure; debate over the US–Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty comes to the fore.

    Watch: A report of water cannon or ramming and a US State Department statement

  3. 3
    Renegotiation of the arrangement15%

    Through diplomatic channels the sides redefine the 2024 provisional arrangement and agree on a notification procedure.

    Watch: A joint statement between Manila and Beijing on resupply procedure

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Chinese warships (Philippine military)▼ 3
  • Chinese coast guard vessels▼ 5
  • Distance short of the shoal▼ 60 nautical miles

Sources

  1. Interaksyon (Reuters) — Philippines accuses China of obstructing resupply mission in South China Sea
  2. The Manila Times — AFP: Chinese interfere during resupply mission
  3. Global Times (state media) — China urges the Philippines, which sent resupply to Ren'ai Jiao, to stop provocations
  4. Global Times (state media) — China Coast Guard blocks Philippine resupply attempt around Ren'ai Jiao