LowIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt26 September 2026, Saturday
IMF mission moves from Karachi to Islamabad for policy talks with Pakistan; central bank reports reserves above 17 billion dollars
The IMF mission running the 4th review of Pakistan's 7 billion dollar programme finished the technical phase in Karachi and moved to Islamabad on 26 September; policy-level talks are due to begin on Monday 28 September. According to Daily Times, the State Bank of Pakistan told the mission reserves were above 17 billion dollars; if the reviews succeed, about 1.2 billion dollars will be released.
According to a Daily Times report of 26 September, the IMF mission was satisfied with the State Bank of Pakistan's briefing on foreign exchange reserves, monetary policy, imports and developments in the currency market; bank officials said reserves had exceeded 17 billion dollars. According to the same report, Sindh province's tax revenue reached 593 billion rupees and its non-tax revenue 80 billion rupees as of 30 June. The reserve figure comes from a single source; it could not be independently verified.
According to an Express Tribune report of 24 September, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in New York on 23 September and said the reforms had preserved economic stability. The report says that if the 4th review of the 7 billion dollar Extended Fund Facility and the 3rd review of the 1.4 billion dollar climate programme are completed, 1.2 billion dollars will be released, about 1 billion dollars from the main programme and 200 million dollars from the climate programme. According to Pakera, this amount consists of 760 million SDR and 153.8 million SDR; the mission is led by Iva Petrova, the review covers performance up to June 2026 and the disbursement is expected at the end of November or the beginning of December.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The positive close of the technical phase and Georgieva's supportive statement on 23 September raise the likelihood that the 4th review ends in a staff-level agreement. The real test comes in the policy talks starting on 28 September: keeping energy prices tied to cost, tax revenues and the circular debt plan. With oil prices running above 100 dollars, the political cost of energy price increases could prolong the negotiations.
Likely effects
- External financingPositive1–6 months
The roughly 1.2 billion dollar tranche and reserves above 17 billion dollars strengthen Pakistan's buffer for external debt payments and import financing.
- Household energy billsNegativeWeeks
The programme's requirement to keep fuel, electricity and gas prices tied to cost means more frequent price adjustments for households while high oil prices persist.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Staff-level agreement60%
Policy talks end with a staff-level agreement by mid-October, and the disbursement arrives at the end of November or the beginning of December.
Watch: The press release the IMF will publish at the end of the talks
- 2Extended by demand for extra measures30%
The IMF asks for additional measures on the tax gap and energy subsidies, and the agreement slips into November via virtual talks.
Watch: Whether the mission leaves without an agreement
- 3Programme slippage10%
Energy price increases are walked back and the review is postponed.
Watch: Electricity and gas tariff decisions in early October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Pakistan FX reserves▲ 17 billion $+
- Financing on the table▲ ~1.2 billion $