MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt13 October 2026, Tuesday · 06:26 TRT (UTC+3)
IMF cuts Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast to 2.7%
In its World Economic Outlook on 13 October, the IMF cut Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast from July's 2.9% to 2.7%. It projects average inflation of 31.2% in 2026 and 26.5% in 2027.
Bloomberg HT says the IMF left its 2027 growth forecast for Türkiye unchanged at 3.6%. According to Medyascope, the same report raised global growth for 2026 to 3.1% and put 2027 at 3.4%, with global inflation expected at 4.7% in 2026. That puts Türkiye among the economies revised down in a report that raised the global forecast.
The IMF's 31.2% average inflation projection for 2026 is above the 29.73% annual CPI for September released on 5 October, according to Bloomberg HT. Trading Economics shows USD/TRY at 49.39 on 14 October, close to October's record of 49.47. Bloomberg HT reports that Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek said on 13 October he would not attend the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok. He cited the fund board meetings and the draft 2027 budget due before parliament on 16 October. Some reports gave 31.2% as a year-end forecast; two sources report it as average inflation.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The revision is small but its direction matters: the IMF raised its global forecast while marking Türkiye down, and held average inflation at 31.2%. That narrows the room for a cut at the 22 October MPC; weakening growth alongside sticky inflation squeezes the CBRT from both sides.
Likely effects
- Monetary policyNegativeWeeks
The 31.2% average-inflation forecast is above September CPI of 29.73% and weakens expectations of a cut on 22 October.
- GrowthNegative1–6 months
The growth forecast, cut from 2.9% in July to 2.7%, pulls down the revenue assumptions behind the 2027 budget.
- BudgetUncertainWeeks
The draft 2027 budget reaching parliament on 16 October will be measured against the IMF's 3.6% growth forecast for 2027.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1MPC holds rates55%
Sticky inflation leads to the policy rate being held on 22 October.
Watch: The 22 October MPC decision and the October survey of market participants
- 2Small cut30%
A limited cut comes on the grounds of weak growth, and pressure on the lira rises.
Watch: Whether USD/TRY breaks above the 49.47 record
- 3Further tightening15%
Reserve losses accelerate and the CBRT tightens in practice through the corridor.
Watch: Weekly reserve data on 15 October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- IMF 2026 growth▼ 2.7%
- IMF 2026 avg inflation▼ 31.2%