LowI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 October 2026, Friday
Iraq allows Iranian airlines 40 daily flights to Najaf
On 2 October the Iraqi government allowed Iranian airlines other than Mahan Air to operate up to 40 flights a day to Najaf International Airport. The decision followed a US exemption from its sanctions on Iranian aviation.
According to Al Jazeera, the US Treasury added 36 entities from Iran's aviation sector to its sanctions list on 8 September. Iranian flights at Iraqi airports were halted at the end of September. On 26 September Baghdad sought direct talks with Washington on an exemption, and on 1 October Iran called for the restrictions to be lifted. AA, citing the Iraqi News Agency, reported Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as saying the decision was taken for patients, pilgrims and tourists.
The exemption is narrow in scope. According to Al Jazeera, Iranian flights remain suspended at Baghdad, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah airports, leaving travellers to make road journeys of more than 12 hours. Iran's ambassador in Baghdad said 12,000–13,000 people a month flew with Iranian carriers before the ban. Around 25 flights a day went to Najaf and 15 to Baghdad. The new permit allows up to 40 flights to Najaf, above the 25 operated before the ban.
According to AA, Mahan Air has been under US sanctions since 2011 for supporting the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, and was excluded from the permit. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein described the decision as part of an Iraq–US partnership based on mutual respect. With a single decision on 2 October, Baghdad thus balanced the demands of both Tehran and Washington.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
While maintaining maximum pressure on Iran, Washington has opened a narrow exemption for Iraq's religious tourism and patient traffic. Limiting the scope to Najaf and excluding Mahan Air reflects a US line of preserving the sanctions regime without losing Baghdad. The most likely path is that the exemption continues at Najaf but does not extend to Baghdad and Erbil.
Likely effects
- Iraq–Iran transportPositiveWeeks
Permission for 40 daily flights to Najaf returns most of the pilgrim and patient traffic, 12,000–13,000 people a month, to the air.
- US sanctions regimeUncertain1–6 months
Confining the exemption to a single airport shows that the 36-entry list of 8 September will be managed without being breached.
- Iraq's balancing actPositive1–6 months
Baghdad's ability to secure an exemption from Washington strengthens its position as an intermediary between the two sides while the Iran war continues.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Najaf-only exemption holds60%
Flights begin at Najaf, while the ban continues at the other 3 airports.
Watch: The actual daily number of Iranian flights at Najaf and any further statement from the US Treasury
- 2Exemption widens25%
Citing pilgrim and patient traffic, the permit extends to Baghdad, and the pre-ban 15 flights a day return.
Watch: Resumption of Iranian flights at Baghdad airport
- 3Exemption is withdrawn15%
Washington suspends the permit following an alleged sanctions violation or an escalation of the war.
Watch: New US Treasury sanctions on aviation companies in Iraq
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Daily flights permitted to Najaf▲ 40
- Monthly Iran–Iraq passengers (pre-ban)▲ 12,000–13,000
- Entities sanctioned on 8 September▼ 36