HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints19 October 2026, Monday

Iran widens its Hormuz blacklist to 122 vessels

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on 19 October that it had put 122 vessels on the list of ships it accuses of breaking transit rules. The list held 46 ships on 24 August and 77 on 15 September; more than 40 vessels have been contacted and 19 are negotiating removal.

Location: HORMUZ

On Fox News's live coverage, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced on 19 October that it had added 122 vessels to its non-compliance list. The authority said it had contacted more than 40 ships, that 19 were negotiating to stay off the list or come off it, and that two had accepted removal by meeting their obligations. Roughly 30 more vessels that have not replied could be added. Lebanon's MTV also wrote the same day that the total on the list had reached 122.

The list has almost tripled in two months. According to Argus, the PGSA published its first list of 46 ships on 24 August, and any vessel conducting a ship-to-ship transfer with a listed ship is added immediately. Middle East Monitor reports that the 15 September update put the number at 77, with penalties defined as fines, detention or seizure. According to Maritime Executive, on 14 September the PGSA also warned insurers, P&I clubs and classification societies against serving listed vessels. The US Treasury sanctioned the PGSA in May.

The figures come from Iranian authorities, and Straits.live flagged them in its 20 October briefing as unverified claims resting on Iranian state media. On the same briefing, IMF PortWatch recorded only two transits through the strait on 11 October against a pre-crisis average of 85 a day, while 127 ships were waiting in the area as of 03.22 UTC on 20 October.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Rather than closing the strait outright, Tehran is building a vessel-by-vessel permission regime. The list has gone from 46 to 122 since 24 August, and 19 ships at the negotiating table show part of the owner community effectively recognising that regime. The most likely path is the list widening further, with transit tied to individual ships coming to terms with Iran.

Likely effects

Tanker charteringNegativeWeeks
Because any ship transferring cargo with a listed vessel is listed too, charterers must work from a shrinking pool of clean ships, and a 122-vessel list cuts available tonnage directly.
InsuranceNegative1–6 months
The PGSA warned insurers on 14 September, so a club serving a listed ship faces Iranian penalties while one that refuses faces the loss of a client.
TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
Turkish owners' Gulf voyages are tested directly by this list, where being named means a detention risk on the next voyage.

Possibilities, ranked

1
List grows, bargaining spreads60%
The roughly 30 unresponsive ships are added as well, and more owners approach the PGSA to come off the list.
Watch: The total and the number of removals in the PGSA's next list update
2
The list is enforced by force25%
The IRGC detains or strikes a listed vessel, turning the list into a punitive instrument.
Watch: A UKMTO detention report involving a listed vessel
3
Suspended through mediation15%
A transit arrangement is reached through Pakistani or Qatari channels and the list becomes effectively inoperable.
Watch: IMF PortWatch daily Hormuz transits rising above 20

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Vessels listed▼ 122
Vessels negotiating▼ 19
PortWatch transits (11 Oct)▼ 2/85

Historical context