HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security22 October 2026, Thursday
Iran's floating oil stocks in Asia have run dry
Reporting based on Kpler data shows the crude Iran held on tankers in Asian waters peaked at close to 90 million barrels. It fell below 1 million barrels on 5 October and was exhausted by mid-October; the US blockade prevents any refill.
The Jerusalem Post, citing a Wall Street Journal report based on Kpler analysts, says the crude Iran kept on tankers in Asian waters peaked at close to 90 million barrels. The stock dropped below 1 million barrels on 5 October and was fully exhausted by mid-October. According to Iran International, the US naval blockade has stopped Tehran from refilling those tankers, whose cargoes were normally sold to China over time.
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude analysis at Kpler, says oil sales account for 30–40% of Iranian state revenue. He summed up the position bluntly: there is no more oil left to offload to China. Because Chinese payments can lag by up to 2 months, analysts say Tehran may keep collecting on past sales for a while longer.
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper says the blockade has cost Iran at least 25 billion dollars in oil revenue; the figure is the US military's own estimate and could not be independently verified. According to The Jerusalem Post, CENTCOM and the US Treasury have also frozen 350 million dollars of Iranian crypto assets in recent weeks. Iran's offshore buffer and its outlet through onshore terminals have thus closed at the same time.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
For the first time Iran's position in the oil market has effectively gone to zero: it has neither loadings nor stock at sea to sell. Tehran therefore suffers nothing from high prices, and can recover its revenue only if the blockade is lifted. The most likely path is Iran leaning harder on the strait and on strike threats as bargaining chips.
Likely effects
- Iran's budgetNegative1–6 months
There are no new sales of the oil that provides 30–40% of revenue; delayed receipts from China could run out within 2 months.
- Chinese refinersNegativeWeeks
Independent refiners dependent on Iranian crude have lost a buffer of about 90 million barrels and are turning more to Iraqi and Gulf cargoes.
- Deterrence balanceNegative1–6 months
With no barrels left to lose, Iran bears no direct oil-market cost for threatening its neighbours' exports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Blockade holds, stocks stay at zero60%
Kpler records no new Iranian loadings, and Tehran keeps the lifting of the blockade as a precondition in talks.
Watch: Kpler and Vortexa loading data for Kharg Island
- 2Limited sales via covert loadings25%
Small loadings begin on tankers with AIS switched off, and floating storage climbs back to a few million barrels.
Watch: Changes in the number of ships CENTCOM turns back or stops
- 3Deal loosens the blockade15%
An agreement emerges through the Pakistani or Qatari channel and Iranian exports resume.
Watch: A US announcement on the blockade and sanctions waivers
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Iran floating storage peak▼ ~90m barrels
- Floating storage, 5 Oct▼ <1m barrels
- Oil's share of state revenue▼ 30–40%