MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Fuel prices push Spanish inflation to its highest level since 2023
The flash estimate published on 29 September by Spain's statistics institute INE shows annual inflation rose 0.6 points to 4.9% in September. The EU-harmonised index climbed to 5.0%, its highest level since February 2023.
According to INE's flash estimate of 29 September, the consumer price index rose 4.9% year on year in September, up from 4.3% in August. The harmonised index (HICP), used for comparison across the EU, rose to 5.0% year on year and 0.6% month on month. Core inflation excluding food and energy rose 0.2 points to 3.1%, while the harmonised core rate was 3.2%. INE attributed the increase to 2 items: fuels for personal vehicles, and package holiday prices that fell by less than a year earlier.
Euronews reported on 29 September that energy products rose 21.6% year on year, unprocessed food 5.8% and services 3.9%. According to the same report, the monthly increase of 0.3% is the largest for the month of September since 2021. Final data will be published on 14 October. Germany's flash data for September will be released on 30 September; according to Destatis, German inflation was 2.9% in August and energy prices rose 10.5%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Spain's harmonised inflation of 5.0% shows the energy shock is still passing strongly into euro area prices. The rise in the core rate to 3.2% indicates the effect is not confined to fuel. This picture strains the ECB's line of a measured response and raises the importance of the German data on 30 September and the euro area data on 1 October.
Likely effects
- ECB monetary policyNegativeWeeks
HICP reaching 5% in a large member state strengthens the hand of those on the ECB who favour tightening.
- Household purchasing powerNegative1–6 months
The 21.6% annual rise in energy squeezes Spanish households' disposable income and could weaken services consumption.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Rising inflation and rate expectations in the euro area could slow demand in Türkiye's largest export market.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Region-wide acceleration60%
Flash data for Germany and the euro area also show inflation rising in September.
Watch: Flash inflation data for Germany on 30 September and the euro area on 1 October
- 2A Spain-specific jump30%
The rise stays limited in other large economies, and the Spanish figure stands apart because of the weight of tourism and fuel.
Watch: September flash inflation data for France and Italy
- 3Rapid reversal10%
The oil price falls, and the energy contribution recedes markedly in the October data.
Watch: The Brent price and Spain's final data on 14 October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Spain CPI, y/y▲ 4.9%
- Spain HICP, y/y▲ 5.0%
- Energy products, y/y▲ +21.6%