LowVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday
Japan urges Asia to build bigger oil stockpiles
Japanese trade minister Ryosei Akazawa used the International Energy Forum on 12 October to urge Asian countries to expand their oil stocks and infrastructure. More than 90% of Japan's crude imports come from Middle Eastern oil that passes through Hormuz.
According to a Bloomberg report published by Energy Connects, Akazawa joined online the ministerial meeting of the International Energy Forum, which brings together energy ministers from more than 60 producer and consumer countries. He called for closer cooperation between producers and consumers and for more stocks and infrastructure in Asia. He said Japan wants to act as a bridge between Middle Eastern producers and Asian countries. POWERR Asia, the initiative Tokyo launched in April, aims to expand regional reserves.
Oilprice, citing the Japan Times, reports that the Japan-led Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) has shifted its focus from emissions to oil supply. In early October it agreed to build a larger regional stockpile and to coordinate releases when needed. April data from the US Energy Information Administration rank Japan third in the world with crude reserves of 263 million barrels. China holds 1.397 billion barrels and the US 413 million. Japan took part in the International Energy Agency's joint release of 400 million barrels in the spring.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Asia wants to make permanent the stock buffer that has capped prices during this crisis. That means the reserve releases holding prices down today will return as extra demand tomorrow. The call does not yet include volumes or a timetable. The most likely path is for AZEC members to announce stock targets slowly and in stages, which would bring refill purchases forward into 2027 as demand recovers.
Likely effects
- Oil demandNegative6 months+
Building regional stocks and refilling released reserves creates buying independent of consumption, limiting the price decline as supply recovers.
- Supply securityPositive6 months+
A coordinated release mechanism would soften Asia's price shock in the first weeks of the next Hormuz disruption.
- Gulf producersUncertain1–6 months
Japan's bridging role opens the door for Gulf producers to enter storage partnerships in Asia.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Phased stockpiling plan55%
A roadmap is unveiled at the AZEC and ASEAN meetings, with concrete volumes left until 2027.
Watch: The stockpile roadmap due at the autumn AZEC and ASEAN meetings
- 2Rapid refill30%
Japan and its partners start buying back released reserves as soon as supply recovers.
Watch: A Japanese tender to repurchase strategic reserves
- 3The call goes unanswered15%
Southeast Asian countries make no stockpiling commitment because of the cost.
Watch: A stockpiling line in ASEAN members' budgets
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Japan crude reserve (EIA, April)▲ 263m barrels
- Import share reliant on Hormuz▼ >90%