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RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 October 2026, Thursday

Canada and Türkiye launch strategic partnership, with trade talks in Ankara

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Erdoğan launched a four-pillar strategic partnership in Ankara on 22 October. Ministers signed energy, defence and air transport agreements; according to the joint statement, the first round of free trade talks will be held in Ankara in November.

Location: ANKARA

The Prime Minister's Office in Ottawa says the 22 October meeting was the first bilateral visit to Türkiye by a Canadian prime minister. The partnership rests on a 3-year action plan with 4 pillars: trade and investment, defence and security, energy, and people-to-people ties. Erdoğan said the aim was to lift bilateral trade of about 3 billion dollars first to 5 billion and then to 10 billion. Canadian data put trade at 4.34 billion Canadian dollars (3.09 billion US dollars), less than 0.3% of Canada's total merchandise trade.

Energy ministers will work on liquefied natural gas (LNG), civil nuclear power and critical minerals. The leaders discussed closer cooperation between the two countries' defence industries on 22 October; in 2024 Canada lifted restrictions on arms exports to Türkiye, including optical technology used in drones. An expanded air transport agreement was signed, and Export Development Canada and Türk Eximbank will step up cooperation on projects in third countries. Carney announced a trade mission to Türkiye in 2027.

Canada's dependence on the United States frames the visit. Roughly 70% of Canadian exports go to the US, and Carney is diversifying markets in response to the trade war. For Ankara, the prize is a new supplier of LNG and nuclear technology and a Western source of components for its defence industry. The timetable is contradictory: the joint statement places the first round in November, while Erdoğan said talks would begin before the end of 2026. The two sides formally launched negotiations on 7 July 2026, at the NATO summit in Ankara.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

In numbers, the partnership aims to grow a small trading relationship; its real value is opening a non-US Western supplier of energy and defence technology. Canada's lifting of export restrictions in 2024 makes the defence pillar possible. The most likely path is a negotiation that starts with the first round in November but takes years to deliver results.

Likely effects

  • Türkiye's energy supplyPositive6 months+

    LNG and civil nuclear add a new option to a supply portfolio tied to the US and Russia; there are no concrete volumes or contracts yet.

  • Defence industryPositive1–6 months

    Institutionalising a Canadian channel for components and optics reduces export-licence risk; if restrictions return, drone production would be hit first.

  • Trade volumeUncertain6 months+

    The goal of lifting trade from 3 billion to 10 billion dollars has no timetable; no jump is likely before a free trade agreement is signed.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Slow but steady talks60%

    The first round takes place in November, and the energy and defence pillars advance at memorandum level.

    Watch: The first free trade round taking place in Ankara in November, and a joint statement

  2. 2
    Quick concrete gains25%

    A binding commercial contract in LNG or nuclear is signed before the end of 2027.

    Watch: BOTAŞ or a Canadian energy company announcing an LNG or reactor contract with Türkiye

  3. 3
    Political friction15%

    Debate over human rights or export licences flares again in Canada and slows the defence pillar.

    Watch: A new call in the Canadian parliament to review arms export permits for Türkiye

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Bilateral trade target▲ $10bn
  • Current bilateral trade▲ ≈$3bn

Sources

  1. Al Jazeera — Carney, Erdogan launch 'strong and resilient' Canada-Turkiye partnership
  2. Prime Minister of Canada — Prime Minister Carney meets with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
  3. ThePrint (Reuters) — Canada, Turkey sign 'strategic partnership' as part of Carney push to cut reliance on US
  4. Prime Minister of Canada — Joint statement on the launch of FTA negotiations between Canada and Türkiye