Kuwaiti tanker hit in Hormuz as October attacks double

Aerial view of a long crude oil tanker with a red deck under way on deep blue sea — The US-flagged Kuwaiti tanker Bridgeton in the Gulf (March 1993) — archive photo representing Kuwaiti tankers, not the vessel that was hitPhoto: PH2 Tim W. Tow, U.S. Navy / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain · Source

Location: BUKHA, OMAN

gCaptain reports that the tanker was hit at 01:45 UTC on 21 October; the resulting fire was put out and all crew are safe. A Navarea IX notice cited by Riviera first described the vessel as on fire and adrift. Ambrey later said the ship had anchored. According to Ambrey, the Aframax was struck while trying to transit the strait with its AIS, the vessel identity and position broadcast, switched off. Greek security firm Marisks said the cause of the fire had not been established and that weapon use had not been officially confirmed.

Two more incidents were reported off Iraq the same day. gCaptain says a tanker was hit 30 nautical miles south-east of Faw, with no damage reported; sources conflict on the timing. gCaptain puts the attack at 18:30 UTC on 20 October, while Vanguard Tech, cited by Riviera, gives 18:30 UTC on 21 October. At the Basra anchorage, 4 projectiles were fired at a vessel conducting a ship-to-ship transfer, all landing in the sea. UKMTO attributed none of the incidents; the perpetrator could not be verified.

The tempo of attacks is rising. A Bloomberg analysis published by gCaptain shows UKMTO logged 32 attacks around the Arabian Peninsula in October, against 16 in all of September. JMIC has counted 153 verified incidents since 1 March. On 18 October it reported roughly 217 ships waiting at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan. According to Straits.live, IMF PortWatch counted only 4 Hormuz transits on 18 October, against a pre-crisis average of 85 a day. UKMTO said on 16 October that most attacked ships had not reported to it, so the real number may be higher.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Attacks have doubled in a month, while most ships now transit with identity broadcasts off and without reporting. That understates both transit data and the attack count. Until a perpetrator is named, underwriters will price the risk across the whole region rather than a single route. The most likely path is attacks continuing at the same pace and the anchorage queue in the Gulf of Oman lengthening.

Likely effects

Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
Attacks rose from 16 in September to 32 in October; at this tempo, war-risk premiums and tanker charter rates are likely to stay elevated.
Idle tonnageNegativeWeeks
JMIC counted roughly 217 ships off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on 18 October; the longer the queue, the more tonnage is effectively withdrawn from the market.
Data reliabilityUncertain1–6 months
UKMTO says most attacked ships did not report; official figures may sit below the real level of risk.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Attacks continue at the same pace55%
Around 10 attacks a week continue and transits stay in single digits.
Watch: Weekly attack counts from UKMTO and JMIC, daily Hormuz transits on PortWatch
2
Attacks spread to the Gulf of Oman30%
Anchorages around Fujairah and Khor Fakkan are also targeted, putting loadings that bypass the strait at risk.
Watch: New UKMTO incident notices around Fujairah and Khor Fakkan
3
Tempo eases15%
Mediation makes attacks less frequent and ships waiting at anchor begin to move.
Watch: UKMTO's weekly attack count falling below 12

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Hormuz transits, 18 Oct▼ 4 ships
October attacks (UKMTO)▲ 32
Ships waiting at anchor▲ ~217

Historical context