MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI2 September 2026, Wednesday
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirms second-phase chip tariffs: those not manufacturing in the US will pay
No rate or timetable was announced; the scope is expected to widen to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
As reported by TechTimes, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said at the G20 Innovation Ministers' Meeting in Chapel Hill on 2 September that companies manufacturing in the US would not pay customs duties, while those producing in other countries would pay. The tariff rate, product list and timetable were not announced. For TSMC, a duty-free import ratio tied to its Arizona capacity is expected to be 2.5 times during the construction period and 1.5 times once production begins.
According to the Seoul Economic Daily, the scope is expected to widen to South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and to the US company Micron. The move follows on from the narrow-scope 25 per cent chip tariff that took effect in January 2026. The uncertainty directly affects memory and foundry companies' decisions on where to invest.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Lutnick's remarks confirm that a second-phase chip tariff is coming; but with the rate, product list and timetable unclear, the effect for now runs through investment decisions rather than customs bills. A formula linking duty-free import rights to building capacity in the US pushes memory and foundry companies to accelerate US investment. The most likely path is phased implementation with broader coverage but wide exemptions for firms committing to invest in the US.
Likely effects
- Semiconductor supply chainNegative1–6 months
Extending coverage to South Korean and US memory makers raises the cost of chips produced outside the US; companies must either shift investment locations or pass costs on to customers.
- Türkiye's manufacturing inputsNegative1–6 months
Higher chip costs may spread through global electronics, automotive and household appliance supply chains, creating indirect cost pressure and supply uncertainty for Turkish manufacturers that import these inputs.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Phased implementation with exemptions45%
The tariff is announced, but firms building US capacity receive capacity-linked duty-free import rights similar to the TSMC formula.
Watch: The Commerce Department publishing the rate and product list, and whether the exemption formula covers memory makers.
- 2Prolonged uncertainty and bilateral bargaining40%
The rate and timetable remain unannounced for months; companies and governments negotiate exemptions bilaterally.
Watch: No official timetable, and reports of South Korea–US talks on chip exemptions.
- 3Broad and strict implementation15%
Exemptions are kept narrow and a high-rate tariff with a broad product list takes effect.
Watch: An announcement of a broad product list at a rate above the 25% introduced in January 2026.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.