MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt16 September 2026, Wednesday

Nigeria's inflation eased to 15.39% in August as monthly food inflation fell from 5.56% to 1.02%

According to National Bureau of Statistics data, annual headline inflation in Nigeria eased from 15.43% to 15.39% in August. The real break came in monthly food inflation: it fell from 5.56% in July to 1.02% in August, and core inflation turned negative on the month.

According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data reported by The Whistler, annual headline inflation in Nigeria was 15.39% in August 2026; it was 15.43% in July and 23.14% a year earlier in August 2025. Annual food inflation fell to 19.57% (from 25.30% in August 2025). On a monthly basis, headline inflation fell from 1.57% in July to 0.71% in August. The fall in monthly food inflation was far sharper: from 5.56% to 1.02%, a retreat of 4.55 points.

On the core side the annual rate fell to 13.29%, from 22.93% a year earlier. Monthly core inflation turned negative in August at −0.06%, against 0.15% in July. The NBS attributed the decline to average price changes in items such as palm oil, carrots, peppers, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, melon seeds, fresh ginger, fresh fish, potatoes, wheat grain and frozen chicken.

Sources differ on the publication date of the data: The Whistler says the bulletin was published on Tuesday 15 September 2026, while Brand Spur gives the date as 16 September 2026. The figures in both sources are identical; the difference comes from publication timing. Neither report contains any comment on the central bank's interest rate policy.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 0.04-point fall in the headline rate may look immaterial, but the real signal is in the monthly data: the monthly food increase falling from 5.56% to 1.02% and core turning negative show that price pressure is losing momentum. Compared with 23.14% a year earlier the disinflation is real, but annual food inflation of 19.57% remains heavy for households. The most likely direction is slow but continuing disinflation.

Likely effects

Nigerian householdsNegativeWeeks
Annual food inflation remaining at 19.57% means the retreat in the headline rate is not yet being felt in household grocery spending.
Monetary policyPositive1–6 months
Monthly core turning negative at −0.06% is the kind of reading that opens a debate about rate cuts; but these reports contain no comment from the central bank.
Türkiye's exportsPositive1–6 months
Slowing inflation and recovering purchasing power in Nigeria support the demand side for Turkish exporters of food, clothing and construction materials.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Gradual disinflation continues60%
Monthly increases stay low and the annual headline rate falls towards below 15% in September and October.
Watch: Monthly headline inflation staying below 1% in the NBS September data.
2
Renewed acceleration from food25%
The post-harvest effect runs out, food prices accelerate again and the headline rate turns up.
Watch: Monthly food inflation rising back above 3%.
3
A jump driven by an exchange rate shock15%
A sharp fall in the naira pushes imported input prices up and core inflation rises again.
Watch: Monthly core inflation turning positive and rising above 1%.

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Nigerian food inflation▼ 19.57% y/y
Naira real return▲ improving
CBN room to cut rates▲ widening