LowI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday
Pakistan cuts fuel prices for the third time in a row, diesel down to 412.12 rupees; OGRA lowers September RLNG price by up to 21% on cheaper Qatari cargoes
Under new prices effective from 25 September, diesel in Pakistan fell 2.63 rupees to 412.12 and petrol 0.84 rupees to 389.28 rupees; the total reduction over three cuts is 9.96 rupees for diesel and 4.47 rupees for petrol. OGRA cut the September RLNG price at SSGC by 21.57% to $14.22/mmBtu.
According to Business Recorder, the Pakistani government on 24 September cut the price of high-speed diesel by 2.63 rupees a litre from 414.75 to 412.12 rupees, and petrol by 0.84 rupees from 390.12 to 389.28 rupees, effective from 25 September. OGRA set the prices under the pricing mechanism notified by the government, based on changes in Platts prices, premiums and incidental costs. According to Aaj, this is the third consecutive cut; in the previous round diesel had fallen 4.21 and petrol 1.93 rupees, and the total reduction over three rounds was 9.96 rupees for diesel and 4.47 rupees for petrol. A 24 September Daily Pakistan report noted that over the same period Brent rose 4.7% to $107.95 on the Saudi Arabia–Houthi escalation; in other words, the domestic cut was announced on a day when international prices rose.
According to Dawn, OGRA cut September RLNG prices by around 20%: the SNGPL distribution price fell 20.14% to $15.196/mmBtu and the SSGC distribution price 21.57% to $14.22/mmBtu. The average delivered ex-ship LNG price was $10.06/mmBtu in September, against $12.12 in August and $18.96/mmBtu in July; the July spike stemmed from 5 expensive cargoes bought on the spot market during the US–Iran conflict. According to Business Recorder, the September price is based on 2 cargoes imported by PSO, and OGRA noted that the cut came while heavy gas outages continue across the country.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Pakistan's cut was announced on the day Daily Pakistan showed Brent rising to $107.95; this suggests domestic prices are lagging international moves and that the risk of the direction reversing in subsequent pricing rounds is high. On the RLNG side, term-contract cargoes have left behind July's $18.96 spot shock; however, heavy gas outages show that supply volumes remain insufficient.
Likely effects
- Pakistan inflationUncertainWeeks
The 9.96-rupee cut in diesel over three rounds eases transport costs in the near term; this gain could reverse once the rise in Brent feeds through.
- Power generation costsPositive1–6 months
The $10.06 delivered price and the 20% RLNG cut lower power plant fuel costs; system losses and supply chain margins remain an additional burden of $3–4 per mmBtu.
- Public finances and subsidiesPositive1–6 months
Prices being set by OGRA through a mechanism based on Platts prices and premiums presents a picture consistent with expectations of subsidy-free energy pricing.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Direction reverses55%
With Brent staying above $100, diesel and petrol rise again in subsequent pricing rounds.
Watch: OGRA's next price notification and Brent's weekly average
- 2Flat trend30%
Global price volatility settles and domestic prices stay flat with small changes over several rounds.
Watch: Platts diesel premiums and the rupee/dollar rate
- 3Cuts continue15%
Brent falls below $100 and cuts continue into a fourth round.
Watch: Brent falling below $100
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Brent (Daily Pakistan, 24 Sep)▲ $107.95
- Pakistan diesel▼ 412.12 rupees/litre
- SSGC RLNG▼ −21.57%