MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence12 October 2026, Monday · 15:07 TRT (UTC+3)
Turkish security sources confirm PKK pull-out from four Metina positions
Security sources say the PKK vacated four shelter areas, named Hebat, Yajk, Sabri and Sason, in the Baze area of Metina in northern Iraq on 8 October. Confirmation came on 12 October; the group had announced on 8 October that it had withdrawn all its armed forces from Türkiye.
According to security sources cited by Batman Burada and Habersitesi on 12 October, the evacuation was completed on 8 October; Habersitesi attributes the confirmation to MİT, Türkiye's national intelligence agency. Evrensel reported on 8 October that the PKK said it had vacated four tunnels and positions in Metina, west of Zap, and that there had been no armed clashes in Türkiye for two years. Shafaq News says the group stated that its last forces inside Türkiye withdrew a few days earlier and that the area is far from the border.
In the same statement the PKK argued that the framework law had not been passed within the scope Öcalan set out, and made two demands: better conditions for Öcalan and prompt steps on freedom laws. According to Shafaq, Iraq's prime minister last week listed an agreement on the withdrawal of Turkish forces and the PKK among the four pillars of a new era of sovereignty. In early August the Turkish press, citing security sources, reported that 81 points along the border had been vacated.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The withdrawal moves the process forward on the ground, but the political timetable looks stuck: the PKK is putting the ball in Ankara's court and wants steps concerning Öcalan. Ankara's preference to keep its military presence in Iraq and Baghdad's demand for withdrawal open a new line of friction. The likeliest path is a slow, uninterrupted process that wins no concrete political return.
Likely effects
- SecurityPositive1–6 months
Vacated positions near the border reduce the need for Turkish operations in northern Iraq; the four positions in Metina are among the last links in that line.
- Türkiye–IraqNegative1–6 months
Baghdad putting the withdrawal of Turkish forces on its sovereignty agenda turns Ankara's base presence into a bargaining issue.
- Domestic politicsUncertain6 months+
If the PKK's two demands go unmet, the process loses its basis of trust; the outcome depends on legislation in parliament.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow, uninterrupted process60%
Withdrawals on the ground continue, and Ankara takes limited, gradual legal steps.
Watch: A new sentencing or harmonisation bill reaching parliament
- 2Political deadlock30%
No step concerning Öcalan comes, the PKK hardens its language and the process freezes.
Watch: A new PKK executive statement and the pattern of İmralı visits
- 3Acceleration10%
Ankara presents a new legal package and a timetable for the Turkish presence in Iraq is discussed.
Watch: A withdrawal timetable in Ankara–Baghdad security talks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Positions vacated▲ 4