LowI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday
Portuguese truckers stage a 150 km go-slow convoy on the A1 as diesel tops 2 euros a litre; fuel prices up 24% year on year in August
Hundreds of lorry drivers in Portugal staged a 150 km go-slow convoy on the A1 motorway from Paredes to Coimbra on Friday 25 September; in Lisbon, commuters sounded their horns on the 25 de Abril Bridge. Fuel prices rose 24% year on year in August, and diesel topped 2 euros a litre.
According to a Reuters report published on the Global Banking and Finance website, the protesting truckers want to benefit from the partial refund of the tax on petroleum products that freight and passenger transport companies enjoy. According to the same report, drivers in Lisbon sounded their horns at 08:00 on the bridge linking the capital to its southern suburbs, demanding the return of remote working, the suspension of motorway tolls, a cut in the 23% VAT on fuel and the resignation of the Environment Minister. The price rise is attributed to supply disruptions from the Iran war and to refinery attacks linked to the war in Ukraine.
Infrastructure Minister Miguel Pinto Luz acknowledged that the transport sector had been 'overlooked' to some extent, said he would examine the proposals and scheduled a meeting at the ministry on Monday. A report by L'Indipendente dated 26 September, citing Eurostat, also confirms the 24% annual rise in August and the diesel price above 2 euros; however, that report gives the day of the protest as Friday 26 September, whereas Friday fell on 25 September. The number of lorries in the convoy is given in sources as 'hundreds'; the exact figure could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The 24% annual rise in fuel prices in August shows the energy shock beginning to turn into street politics in Europe's peripheral economies. The protesters are not asking for a new subsidy but for an extension of the existing tax refund; this leaves the government room for a concession with a limited budget cost. If Monday's meeting yields nothing, the likelihood of the protests spreading increases.
Likely effects
- Portuguese public financesNegativeWeeks
A cut in the 23% VAT or an extension of the tax refund to truckers would cause a revenue loss; the government may opt for a limited extension of the refund at the Monday meeting announced by Pinto Luz.
- Energy-driven social tension in EuropeNegative1–6 months
While diesel stays above 2 euros and Iran war supply disruption persists, similar haulier protests may spread to other EU countries; this pushes up logistics costs and food prices.
- Turkish export logisticsNegativeWeeks
Fuel-driven haulier protests and high diesel prices in Europe risk raising freight costs for road cargo travelling from Türkiye to the EU.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited concession55%
The government partially extends the tax refund to truckers, leaves VAT untouched, and the protests subside.
Watch: Outcome of Monday's meeting at the Infrastructure Ministry
- 2Protests spread35%
No concession comes, convoys spread to other motorways and ports, and supply disruptions begin.
Watch: Announcements of new convoy and port protests
- 3VAT cut10%
The government temporarily lowers the 23% VAT on fuel.
Watch: A Council of Ministers decree on fuel taxation
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Diesel price per litre▼ €2+
- Fuel prices (August, y/y)▼ +24%