MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security20 October 2026, Tuesday
Primorsk halt drives Russia's seaborne crude exports to lowest since March
Bloomberg tanker-tracking data show Russia's seaborne crude exports fell by 390,000 barrels a day to 3.13 million in the week to 18 October. The Baltic port of Primorsk loaded nothing for about 3 days.
OilPrice.com, citing Bloomberg tanker-tracking data on 20 October, said Russia's weekly seaborne crude exports fell by 390,000 barrels a day to 3.13 million, the lowest weekly level since March. Thirty-one tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels, against 34 vessels carrying 24.63 million the week before. The four-week average stood at 3.59 million barrels a day as of 18 October, down 110,000 barrels on the previous period.
The drop stems from a 3-day halt at Primorsk in the Baltic. UA.NEWS reported that shipments from the port stopped for about 3 days, satellite images showed empty berths and tanker data recorded no arrivals or departures. Technical work at the port or on the feeder pipeline is cited as the cause; that explanation could not be confirmed by an official source as of 20 October. Loadings resumed towards the end of the week ending 18 October. The weekly value of exports fell by about 380 million dollars to 2.33 billion dollars, the lowest in 6 weeks.
The erosion on the supply side runs deeper than a week-long outage. OPEC secondary-source estimates put Russia's September crude output at 8.64 million barrels a day, the lowest since mid-2020 and a 10th consecutive monthly decline. The four-week average to China and India fell from 3.54 million to 3.43 million barrels a day. UA.NEWS says a decree dated 28 September restricted publication of data on product output, export contracts and tanker coordinates, which means tracking data will remain the only source in the weeks ahead.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Most of the weekly drop comes from the 3-day Primorsk halt, and with loadings resumed it does not count as a lasting loss on its own. The real signal is in production: September output of 8.64 million barrels a day marks 10 months of decline. The most likely path is Russian exports returning to the 3.5–3.6 million barrel range without any rise in volumes bound for Asia.
Likely effects
- Asian crude supplyNegativeWeeks
The four-week flow to China and India has fallen to 3.43 million barrels; with Gulf supply tight, Russian crude cannot widen the substitution buffer.
- Data transparencyUncertain1–6 months
The 28 September decree curbed official data; the market now reads Russian supply from tanker tracking alone, which amplifies week-to-week volatility.
- TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
Russian crude and diesel are a main source for Turkish refiners; every halt at the Baltic outlets shifts demand towards the Black Sea route and Novorossiysk loadings.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Technical halt, quick return60%
Primorsk returns to full capacity and weekly exports climb back above 3.5 million barrels, while the production decline continues.
Watch: Bloomberg's Russian seaborne export data for the week of 25 October
- 2Baltic outage recurs25%
Primorsk or Ust-Luga halts again and the four-week average falls below 3.5 million barrels.
Watch: A new gap in the Primorsk loading programme or a reported attack on the port
- 3Exports rise15%
A diesel deal and sanctions waiver also speed up crude flows, and weekly exports top 3.8 million barrels.
Watch: The four-week average rising above 3.7 million barrels
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Weekly exports▼ 3.13m b/d
- Weekly value▼ $2.33bn
- September output▼ 8.64m b/d