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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionEurasia

MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt20 October 2026, Tuesday

Bank of Russia sells gold again as reserves sink to 2019 low

Bank of Russia data show gold reserves fell by 200,000 ounces in September to 72.8 million ounces, the lowest since late 2019. Selling has now run for ten consecutive months, totalling 2 million ounces, or about 62 tonnes, since December.

Location: MOSCOW

Central bank data reported by The Moscow Times on 20 October show the decline is steady rather than one-off. Interfax said gold reserves stood at 73 million ounces, roughly 2,270 tonnes, on 1 September, worth 333.5 billion dollars. The same report said the bank cut holdings by 0.2–0.3 million ounces every month in 2026; in years without sales, monthly movements never exceeded ±0.1 million ounces. At the start of 2022 the stock was about 74 million ounces.

The Moscow Times says the sales mirror the Finance Ministry's drawdowns from the National Wealth Fund to cover the budget deficit, which is expected to reach 7.3 trillion roubles in 2026, twice the original target. Finance Ministry figures cited by Ukrainska Pravda, via The Bell, show oil and gas revenue fell 22% year on year in September to 452.4 billion roubles, while fuel compensation paid to refiners rose to 305.5 billion roubles. Finam analyst Alexander Potavin says the revenue drop deepens reliance on the fund. IMF data show the only period in modern Russia when reserves eroded faster was 1998, when 3.8 million ounces were sold in 3 months.

Where the gold goes is not fully known. Chinese customs data show about 100 tonnes of Russian-origin gold entered Hong Kong in January–July 2026, three times the level a year earlier. How much of those 100 tonnes came from central bank reserves could not be verified in the sources. The structural constraint is this: even with oil prices high in September, Moscow is running down its second buffer, physical gold, at 0.2 million ounces a month to plug the deficit.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Russia is now financing its budget deficit not only from its liquid currency buffer but from physical gold as well. That sales continued despite September's oil price rise points to revenue losses driven not by price but by compensation paid into the domestic fuel market. If the pace of 0.2–0.3 million ounces a month holds, Moscow's sanctions-proof reserve flexibility narrows. The most likely path is selling at the same pace until the 2027 budget becomes law.

Likely effects

  • Gold marketUncertain1–6 months

    Russian gold flowing to China via Hong Kong adds to global supply; it is a rare channel in which the official sector is a seller rather than a buyer.

  • Russian public financesNegativeWeeks

    A 7.3 trillion rouble deficit enlarges both fund drawdowns and borrowing, which is why the central bank is cautious about a rate cut on 23 October.

  • Sanctions leverageUncertain6 months+

    As gold, the last buffer that cannot be frozen, runs down, time pressure on Moscow in its energy bargaining with the US increases.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Sales continue at the same pace60%

    October and November data also show declines of 0.2–0.3 million ounces, and reserves approach 72 million ounces.

    Watch: The gold line in the central bank's 1 November reserve data

  2. 2
    Oil revenue slows the sales30%

    Extra oil revenue expected in October flows back into the fund and gold sales pause.

    Watch: The Finance Ministry's November budget-rule operations announcement

  3. 3
    Sales accelerate10%

    Fresh refinery attacks and compensation payments widen the deficit, and monthly sales exceed 0.3 million ounces.

    Watch: October oil and gas revenue coming in below the 289.5 billion rouble extra revenue expectation

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Gold, last 6 months

4,0874,1624,2374,3124,38716/0924/0901/1007/1014/1020/1016 September 2026 — Fed raises its target range to 3.75–4.00% in its first rate hike since July 2023116 September 2026 — Gold recovers from a six-week low driven by rising yields, climbing to 4,311 dollars222 September 2026 — China's gold imports top 1,000 tonnes by end-August, exceeding all of 2025; central bank added 20.2 tonnes in August328 September 2026 — Oil shock and rate-hike bets push gold to a seven-week low419 October 2026 — Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January520 October 2026 — Bank of Russia sells gold again as reserves sink to 2019 low6
  1. 116/09 · Fed raises its target range to 3.75–4.00% in its first rate hike since July 2023
  2. 216/09 · Gold recovers from a six-week low driven by rising yields, climbing to 4,311 dollars
  3. 322/09 · China's gold imports top 1,000 tonnes by end-August, exceeding all of 2025; central bank added 20.2 tonnes in August
  4. 428/09 · Oil shock and rate-hike bets push gold to a seven-week low
  5. 519/10 · Barclays now expects Fed hikes in both December and January
  6. 620/10 · Bank of Russia sells gold again as reserves sink to 2019 low

Sources

  1. The Moscow Times — Russia's Gold Reserves Fall to Lowest Since 2019 as Budget Deficit Widens
  2. Ukrainska Pravda — Russian oil and gas revenues fall by 22% year-on-year in September
  3. Bank of Russia — Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 14.00% p.a.
  4. Interfax — Russia's international reserves and monetary gold as of 1 September 2026