MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI29 October 2026, Thursday
Samsung sells out next year's HBM as the squeeze stretches to 2028
Samsung Electronics said in its final results on 29 October that its 2027 supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is fully sold at agreed prices. Management said supply constraints would last until 2028.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of 195.3 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Profit rose 20% on the previous quarter, and the operating margin widened from 52% to 55%. Net profit came in at 75.1 trillion won; the company said the weak currency cut operating profit by about 10 trillion won. The DS semiconductor division booked 106.5 trillion won of operating profit on 147.1 trillion won of revenue. The average DRAM selling price rose about 20% in the quarter, and NAND prices rose in the high teens.
The real news is in the capacity timetable. HBM4 sales more than tripled in the quarter to reach 60% of total HBM sales, and mass production of HBM4E will start in the first half of 2027. Chief financial officer Sooncheol Park said supply constraints would persist. He cited fab construction times, growing HBM die sizes and equipment lead times. Samsung has signed multi-year contracts with 10 major customers, is in talks with 10 more, and aims to tie 60–70% of its medium- to extended-horizon capacity to such contracts.
The investment budget has grown too. Third-quarter capital spending was 29 trillion won, of which 27.2 trillion went to chips. Guidance for 2026 is 84.4 trillion won, 31.7 trillion won more than in 2025. At Fab 1 in Taylor, Texas, the clean room is operating and wafers have started going in for line installation. The company said fourth-quarter foundry growth would come from key US and Chinese customers; it did not mention export controls.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Selling out its 2027 HBM supply this early shows that the AI memory squeeze is not a cyclical peak but a structural constraint written into contracts. If 60–70% of capacity is locked into multi-year deals, the share left for the spot market narrows. The most likely path is memory prices staying high through 2027, with the cost passed on to phone and PC makers.
Likely effects
- Electronics makersNegative1–6 months
Capacity shifting to HBM and a 20% rise in DRAM prices push up memory costs for phone and PC manufacturers.
- AI data centre investmentNegative6 months+
With 2027 supply already sold, newcomers can only get HBM from 2028 capacity.
- Korean growthUncertain1–6 months
Investment of 84.4 trillion won and record profits deepen the Korean economy's dependence on the chip cycle.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Contracts entrench the squeeze60%
Multi-year contracts expand, and DRAM and HBM prices stay high throughout 2027.
Watch: Whether Samsung raises its count of multi-year contract customers from 10 to 20
- 2AI spending slows25%
Hyperscalers cut their investment pace, and contracted volumes are reopened for negotiation.
Watch: 2027 capex guidance from US cloud companies
- 3Capacity arrives faster than expected15%
HBM4E and new lines come online early, and the price rise stops by mid-2027.
Watch: HBM4E mass production starting in the first half of 2027, and DRAM contract prices
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Operating profit▲ ₩107.4tn
- 2026 capex guidance▲ ₩84.4tn