LowV Technology Geopolitics & AI25 September 2026, Friday
Samsung and SK Hynix Q3 operating profit forecast at 189.87 trillion won; Samsung prepares to at least double HBM4 family output in 2027
According to the FnGuide consensus, Samsung's 3rd-quarter operating profit is expected at 105.6 trillion won and SK Hynix's at 74.1 trillion won, a total of 189.87 trillion won. According to industry sources, Samsung will raise monthly HBM wafer input from around 180,000 to 250,000, and the HBM4 family's share will rise from 40% to 80%.
According to a 25 September Seoul Economic Daily report, the FnGuide consensus forecasts operating profit of 105.6 trillion won for Samsung and 74.1 trillion won for SK Hynix in the 3rd-quarter results due in October, a total of 189.87 trillion won. Over the past 3 months Samsung's revenue forecast has fallen 2.6% and its operating profit forecast 4.4%; analysts attribute this to currency effects rather than market weakness. According to the report, Samsung expects 3rd-quarter HBM4 revenue to more than triple from the previous quarter, while KB Securities forecasts that Samsung's foundry unit could turn a profit for the first time since 2023.
According to a 20 September Seoul Economic Daily report, Samsung will raise its outsourced glass carrier cleaning volume from 20,000 panels a month this year to 50,000 a month next year; this 2.5-fold increase points to HBM4 and HBM4E output at least doubling. Total HBM output is expected to rise by around 40% from 180,000 to 250,000 wafers a month, with the HBM4 family's share rising from 40% to 80%. A 21 September DigiTimes report also wrote that Samsung plans to at least double HBM4 family output in 2027 and that tightness in memory supply persists. Samsung began mass production of HBM4 in February and in May supplied 12-layer HBM4E samples to customers including Nvidia. The plans have not been officially confirmed by the company.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The profit forecast of 189.87 trillion won and the plan to raise the HBM4 family's share of output to 80% deepen the Korean memory sector's dependence on AI demand. Although the 4.4% downward revision in forecasts is said to be currency-driven, the real question for the market is less the record profit than the sustainability of HBM4 profitability and price increases.
Likely effects
- AI chip supplyPositive1–6 months
HBM wafer input rising to 250,000 a month could widen one of the tightest supply items for accelerator makers such as Nvidia and AMD in 2027.
- Korean exportsPositiveWeeks
Rising memory profits could carry South Korea's chip-heavy export growth and its effect on the won into the 4th quarter.
- Costs in TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
If capacity shifting to HBM keeps squeezing conventional DRAM supply, memory costs for computer and server purchases in Türkiye could stay high.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Forecast met55%
October results come in close to consensus, HBM4 revenue rises as expected and the expansion plan continues.
Watch: Samsung's preliminary earnings announcement in early October
- 2Peak debate flares up30%
DRAM and NAND price increases slow faster than expected and HBM4 profitability disappoints.
Watch: Monthly change in DRAM contract prices
- 3Forecast beaten15%
The foundry unit turns profitable and total profit clearly beats consensus.
Watch: Operating result of Samsung's foundry unit
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Samsung+SK Hynix Q3 profit forecast▲ 189.87 trillion won
- Samsung monthly HBM wafer input▲ 180,000→250,000
- HBM4 family share of output▲ 40%→80%