HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt1 October 2026, Thursday
Turkish regulator allows interim payouts of up to 1 million lira per fund
On 1 October, Türkiye's Capital Markets Board (SPK) opened the way for interim payments from 65 funds in liquidation through bulletin no. 2026/67. Each investor will receive at most 1 million lira per fund. The BIST 100 rose 2.53% the same day to 12,249 points.
An interim payment means part of the money is returned to investors before the liquidation is completed. Ekonomim reported on 2 October that 65 of the 131 funds in liquidation fall under the decision. Investors with a net investment below 1 million lira will receive the full amount. According to Dünya, SPK announced at 15:09 on 1 October that the limit will apply separately to each fund. An investor holding units in 3 funds in liquidation could therefore receive up to 3 million lira. The calculation will be made fund by fund by the Central Registry Agency (MKK).
According to Ekonomim, money market funds hold about 266,000 investors and 301 billion lira. Tera Portföy's money market fund alone accounts for 224 billion lira and about 167,000 investors. The decision covers liquidation funds of the portfolio companies Tera, Pusula, Atlas and Hedef. A1 Capital, Bulls and Pardus will carry out their liquidations themselves. Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek, joining a conference in London by video link on 1 October, said there was no systemic problem in the fund markets.
On the investigation, Bloomberg HT reported on 2 October that 13 of the 33 suspects in custody were brought before a judge. 4 were arrested and 9 were released under judicial control. Investing.com data show that the BIST 100 rose 2.53% on 1 October after falling 2.40% on 29 September and 2.79% on 30 September. An analyst quoted by Ekonomim said the decision had reduced uncertainty over the liquidation.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
For the first time in the fund crisis, SPK has set up a concrete mechanism to give small investors cash before liquidation ends. The 1 million lira limit per fund could quickly solve the liquidity problem for most of the 266,000 money market fund investors. The market's 2.53% reaction on 1 October suggests the decision halted panic selling. While arrests continue, however, legal risk remains on the table.
Likely effects
- Small investorsPositiveWeeks
Investors with a net investment below 1 million lira will get all their money before liquidation ends. This eases pressure for forced selling and deposit withdrawals.
- Borsa IstanbulPositiveWeeks
The BIST 100's 2.53% recovery on 1 October, after falls of 2.40% and 2.79% on 29–30 September, suggests the decision partly removed liquidation uncertainty from prices.
- Large investors and institutionsNegative1–6 months
Balances above 1 million lira must wait for the end of liquidation. How much of that portion is recovered in Tera's 224 billion lira fund is uncertain.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Payments start on schedule60%
MKK completes the reconciliation, payments begin first in money market funds, and the market calms.
Watch: SPK and the portfolio companies announcing the first interim payment date
- 2Reconciliation is delayed30%
The fund-by-fund calculation drags on, payments are delayed, and investor complaints feed back into prices.
Watch: A new SPK bulletin on the payment timetable during October
- 3Investigation widens10%
The remaining 20 suspects and new detentions bring other institutions into scope, and new liquidation decisions follow.
Watch: New detention orders from the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Interim payout cap (per fund)▲ 1 million lira
- Funds covered▲ 65 / 131
- Money market fund investors▼ ~266,000
- BIST 100 (1 October)▲ +2.53%
Sources
- Ekonomim — Interim payment solution for fund investors halts stock market turbulence
- Dünya — Key detail for fund investors: the 1 million lira limit applies per fund
- AA — Minister Şimşek: no systemic problem in fund markets
- Bloomberg HT — Four suspects arrested in fund investigation
- Investing.com — BIST 100 historical data