MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence28 September 2026, Monday
Sudan rejects Ethiopia's claim it backs opposition and makes counter-accusation
Ethiopia's Chief of General Staff Birhanu Jula accused Sudan and Egypt on 28 September of supporting anti-government groups. Sudan's army called the claim baseless and alleged that Ethiopia was providing drone support to the RSF from its own territory.
Anadolu Agency reported on 28 September on remarks by Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, commander of the Ethiopian National Defence Force. He said Sudan, Egypt and other actors were backing an alliance of armed and political groups against the government. Jula argued that without outside support the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Eritrea would pose a more limited threat. The statement came at the end of 1 week in which clashes between federal forces and the TPLF intensified in the north.
The Sudanese Armed Forces rejected the accusation as baseless and said they were committed to the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. The army also alleged that Ethiopia was supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with training, resupply and long-range one-way attack drones. Al-Monitor reported on 5 May that Khartoum had claimed drone strikes were being launched from Bahir Dar Airport from 1 March. Addis Ababa denied this and accused Sudan of supporting the TPLF. The claims of the two sides could not be independently verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Ethiopian army's description of the Tigray war as a proxy war waged by neighbours has now turned, by name, on Sudan and Egypt. The linking of two civil wars increases the risk of front lines in the Horn of Africa spilling across borders. The probability of direct interstate conflict is low, but drone and proxy support could grow.
Likely effects
- Horn of Africa securityNegative1–6 months
The allegation that Sudan and Ethiopia are backing each other's rebels carries the risk of turning two civil wars into a single regional conflict.
- Red Sea tradeNegative1–6 months
As insecurity grows around the Djibouti corridor and Port Sudan, freight and insurance costs rise.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
Ankara's simultaneous defence relationships with Sudan and Ethiopia make it harder to strike a balance between the two sides.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tension stays verbal55%
The accusations continue, and there is no direct clash on the border.
Watch: Statements from the African Union Peace and Security Council
- 2Proxy escalation35%
Cross-border drone strikes and arms flows increase.
Watch: Drone incident reports in Blue Nile and Benishangul-Gumuz
- 3Direct border clash10%
The two armies confront each other in the Fashaga area.
Watch: Satellite imagery of a troop build-up in Fashaga
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Start of mutual accusations▼ 1 March 2026
- Countries accused by Jula▼ 2