MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence21 September 2026, Monday
Sudanese army says it took 3 areas north-east of Kurmuk in Blue Nile; 5 civilians killed in RSF attack on Umm Badr gold market
On 21 September the Sudanese army said it had taken Balbung, Midel and Hor al-Hasan in the Kurmuk area of Blue Nile and destroyed 9 RSF vehicles. The same day an RSF attack on the Umm Badr gold market in North Kordofan killed 5 civilians and wounded 27. The RSF did not comment on either development.
According to reports by Anadolu Agency and News.az dated 21 September, the army and allied forces said they had advanced in the Balbung, Midel and Hor al-Hasan areas of the Keren Keren administrative unit north-east of the Kurmuk area in Blue Nile state, seizing numerous vehicles and an ammunition depot. The army also said it had destroyed 9 RSF combat vehicles in a pre-emptive strike south of El-Keili on Saturday 19 September and repelled an attack by the RSF and the SPLM-N on Makja and Mada on Sunday 20 September. There was no response from the RSF to these claims; the vehicle and casualty figures could not be independently verified.
On the Kordofan front the picture is reversed. According to a statement by the Dar Hamar Emergency Committee carried by Anadolu, 5 civilians, including 1 goldsmith, were killed and 27 wounded in an RSF attack on the Umm Badr gold market in North Kordofan on 21 September; the committee said the RSF looted the market and all shops in the area and set up a combat vehicle base between the market and El-Hilla. According to the same report, the army had recently retaken El-Gemama and 11 other areas in North Kordofan. The RSF did not respond to this statement either. About 13 million people have been displaced in the war under way since April 2023.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The army is announcing territorial gains in Blue Nile on the Ethiopian border and in North Kordofan; the RSF, meanwhile, is targeting economic nodes such as gold markets along the lines it has withdrawn from. The statements are one-sided and lack independent confirmation. The most likely path is limited territorial change on both fronts and continued civilian casualties.
Likely effects
- Gold tradeNegative1–6 months
The looting of gold markets such as Umm Badr shows that the gold trade, Sudan's main source of foreign currency, has become a financing tool for the warring parties.
- Border securityNegative1–6 months
While the fighting in Kurmuk continues on the Ethiopian border, the risk of intervention by regional actors and cross-border displacement increases.
- Humanitarian aidNegativeWeeks
In a war that has displaced about 13 million people, the new wave of displacement around Jebel el-Sheikh increases the need for aid.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited advances, continued attacks55%
The army holds its local gains in Blue Nile and North Kordofan, while the RSF continues raids on civilian targets and markets.
Watch: Weekly control claims by the army and the RSF and casualty statements by civil groups
- 2RSF-SPLM-N counter-offensive30%
The RSF and the SPLM-N launch a renewed offensive towards Kurmuk and Ed-Damazin, and the army loses its gains.
Watch: Reports of new fighting around Ed-Damazin
- 3Pause on the front15%
Logistical constraints and losses lead to a marked decline in fighting on both fronts.
Watch: Reports of fighting in Blue Nile and North Kordofan declining for 2 weeks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Killed/wounded at Umm Badr▼ 5 / 27
- Vehicles destroyed by army (claimed)▲ 9