MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday
Sudanese army downs long-range FH-95 drone in North Kordofan; as ground fighting eases, drone warfare drives up civilian casualties
The Sudanese army announced that on the morning of 24 September it shot down an 'enemy' FH-95 drone north-east of the El-Kuweiti area in North Kordofan. According to the UN, more than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes by both sides in the first half of 2026; ground fighting is easing on the main fronts while drone use is rising.
According to a Radio Tamazuj report dated 24 September, the Sudanese Armed Forces said their air defences shot down an enemy FH-95 drone north-east of the El-Kuweiti area in North Kordofan state on the morning of 24 September, and released a video showing soldiers standing over the wreckage. According to the same report, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights documented 15 drone strikes in and around El-Obeid between 6 and 28 June, which killed at least 45 civilians and injured 41. The report also states that strikes in the Sheikan area on 20 September destroyed more than 292,000 school books, although UNICEF did not confirm who carried out the attack.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, after the army secured El-Obeid and opened a supply route from Omdurman through White Nile and North Kordofan, ground fighting on the main fronts eased, but both sides are continuing artillery and drone strikes. According to the same report, a drone that hit a courthouse in Um Rawaba on 8 September killed around 10 people, and on 9 September the roof and 8 classrooms of a college in El-Obeid were destroyed and 1 security guard was killed. According to UN data, more than 1,000 civilians lost their lives in drone strikes by both sides in the first half of 2026; the war has been under way since April 2023, i.e. for 3.5 years.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The war in Sudan is shifting from front-line manoeuvre to stand-off strikes: while the army holds ground lines around El-Obeid, both sides are using drones to target urban infrastructure and military facilities. Although downing platforms such as the FH-95 shows air defences are improving, drone strikes remain the main source of civilian casualties. The most likely path is a combination of low-intensity ground fighting and high-intensity drone warfare persisting in Kordofan.
Likely effects
- Civilian infrastructureNegative1–6 months
Attacks on courthouses, colleges and school book depots are eroding public services in front-line cities such as El-Obeid and accelerating displacement.
- Regional arms flowsNegative1–6 months
The spread of extended-range drones shows that external supply networks are fuelling the war; this complicates mediation efforts and ceasefire plans.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
The growing need in Sudan for air defence against extended-range drones indirectly concerns defence industry competition in the region and Türkiye's Red Sea–Horn of Africa security agenda.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Drone war continues60%
Ground fronts remain relatively static, and both sides keep up drone strikes on urban and supply targets.
Watch: UN updates on civilian casualties in Kordofan
- 2New ground offensive in Kordofan25%
The RSF or the army launches a new ground offensive around El-Obeid.
Watch: Reports of changes of control in towns around El-Obeid
- 3Move to a ceasefire process15%
The parties accept a mediators' ceasefire initiative, and drone strikes decline markedly.
Watch: The parties' official response to the ceasefire plan
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Civilian drone victims (H1)▼ 1,000+
- El-Obeid strikes (June)▼ 15 strikes