MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday
Sudan's army says it has taken Sodari on the road to Darfur in North Kordofan; the same day a drone strike on Mazrub market kills at least 17 civilians
Sudan's army announced on 25 September that it had taken Sodari, on the roads linking North Kordofan to North Darfur and West Kordofan, from the RSF. The same morning a drone strike hit the market in RSF-controlled Mazrub, killing at least 17 civilians according to residents, who blamed the army for the attack.
According to a 25 September Radio Tamazuj report, the Sudanese Armed Forces said that, together with allied forces, they had captured Sodari after heavy fighting and inflicted heavy losses in personnel and equipment on the RSF; the casualty claim could not be independently verified. The army had also announced on 18 September that it had taken 11 areas in North Kordofan. A 24 September Asharq Al-Awsat report had written that the army withdrew from around Sodari after overextending its defensive lines and that the advance west of El Obeid had been halted at Umm Sumaymah by an RSF counter-attack; the town thus appears to have changed hands within 24 hours.
According to a separate Radio Tamazuj report, a drone strike that hit Mazrub market at around 10:00 on the morning of Friday 25 September killed at least 17 civilians, including women, and wounded many others; the army and the RSF could not be reached. Mazrub, Umm Badr, Hamrat al-Sheikh, Abu Qaud, Umm Sumaima and Kazgil remain in RSF hands. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the UN reports that more than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes by both sides in the first half of 2026. In its 3 September report, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan said it had documented up to 2,000 former Colombian military contractors using drones and artillery in RSF ranks.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Sodari appearing to change hands within 24 hours shows that the North Kordofan front is moving back and forth rather than producing lasting gains. The army holding the junction on the road to Darfur would complicate the RSF's western supply lines; however, the killing of 17 civilians in Mazrub the same day shows that the cost of drone-heavy warfare is increasingly borne by civilians and that pressure for a 90-day ceasefire is finding no traction on the ground.
Likely effects
- Front-line balanceUncertainWeeks
Holding Sodari allows the army to advance along the routes linking El Obeid to Darfur; the halt at Umm Sumaymah, however, shows that the RSF retains counter-attack capacity.
- Civilian casualtiesNegativeWeeks
Drone strikes on crowded areas such as markets add new deaths to the 1,000+ civilians killed in the first half of 2026 and accelerate displacement.
- External supportNegative1–6 months
The up to 2,000 foreign contractors and drone supplies documented by the UN mission are prolonging the war through external resources and prompting debate over the responsibility of regional actors.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Back-and-forth front55%
Sodari and its surroundings could change hands again within a few weeks, and drone strikes continue from both sides.
Watch: RSF claims of a counter-attack on Sodari
- 2Army advances west30%
The army takes the Mazrub and Umm Badr line and approaches the North Darfur border.
Watch: Change of control in Mazrub and Umm Badr
- 3Ceasefire table15%
The US proposal for a 90-day ceasefire is accepted by the parties and the front freezes.
Watch: Official responses of the army and the RSF to the ceasefire proposal
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Dead at Mazrub market▼ at least 17
- Areas taken by army since 18 Sep▲ 11 + Sodari
- H1 2026 civilian drone deaths▼ 1,000+