MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security12 October 2026, Monday
Saudi Arabia plans 10 million barrels of pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz
At the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on 12 October, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman set a goal of raising pipeline capacity carrying oil outside the Gulf to 10 million barrels a day within two to three years. By temporarily switching a gas pipeline to crude, Aramco could add 1.2 million barrels a day of export capacity in seven to eight weeks.
According to Investing.com on 12 October, the temporary conversion could last until May; the line would then be cleaned and returned to gas service before summer. With further investment, the total increase could reach 3 million barrels. A Bloomberg report carried by SupplyChainBrain says the main East-West line can now carry 7 million barrels a day, so the 10-million target implies an increase of about 40%. The line was knocked out by an attack in September and, after repairs, was carrying 5.8 million barrels a day on 6 October.
The ministry and Aramco are fitting the line with pumping stations and compressors so it can carry both oil and gas. Riyadh is in talks with Kuwait and other countries on joint export routes. The same report says Oman's state investment company is developing storage at Duqm on the Arabian Sea coast, where loading would not depend on transiting Hormuz. In the first months of the war, with Hormuz almost closed, the East-West line delivered 70% of the kingdom's normal flow to market.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Riyadh treats the Hormuz constraint as lasting and is moving the backbone of its exports from the strait to pipelines. But the temporary 1.2 million barrels is limited by the gas line's return in May; the lasting fix is two to three years away. In the near term the line will keep running close to its 7-million-barrel ceiling, and the backup outlet itself stays within Houthi range.
Likely effects
- Gulf export routingPositive1–6 months
If the 1.2-million-barrel conversion comes on stream within eight weeks, the Red Sea outlet at Yanbu gains share and the portion of flows dependent on Hormuz falls.
- Red Sea riskNegative1–6 months
As more Saudi barrels head to Yanbu, Houthi reach over Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea coast becomes the new single chokepoint for supply.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
As more Saudi barrels load on the Red Sea coast, crude bound for the Mediterranean depends less on Hormuz; Gulf supply for Turkish refineries leans on the Suez route rather than Bab el-Mandeb.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Temporary conversion on schedule55%
The extra 1.2 million barrels is running by early December, and total East-West throughput rises above 7 million barrels.
Watch: November–December tanker-tracking data for Yanbu loadings and Aramco statements
- 2Attacks push back the timetable30%
A new Houthi strike on the line or its pumping stations delays the conversion, and flows drop below the 5.8 million barrels of 6 October.
Watch: Reports of attacks on the East-West line and Yanbu
- 3Hormuz reopens, plan slows15%
A US–Iran transit arrangement reduces the urgency of the temporary conversion and stretches the investment timetable.
Watch: IMF PortWatch daily Hormuz transits exceeding 20
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Temporary extra capacity▲ +1.2m b/d
- Pipeline goal (2–3 yrs)▲ +40%