SA · Government · Aramco · OPEC+ · Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Arabia
Narrow room for manoeuvre · updated 18 September 2026
What they did
It moved the F-35 purchase announced during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington in November 2025 to the notification stage: on 17 September the US State Department notified Congress of a 24.3 billion dollar sale covering 48 F-35A aircraft and 49 F135 engines; this would be the first sale of fifth-generation fighter aircraft to Riyadh. Over the same period it kept the East–West pipeline, closed after a drone attack, shut and continued air operations against the Houthis in Yemen.
Why
The Houthis claimed to have downed a Saudi F-15 over Marib a day before the notification; the following day at least five people, three of them children, were killed in Saudi–Houthi clashes. Drones launched from Iraq had struck the export line and the Houthis had seized territory on the Bab el-Mandeb coast. Riyadh wants to renew its air power and to institutionalise Washington's support.
What they must do
It must reopen the Red Sea export route, the only alternative while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and halt the attacks on its southern border. On the F-35 file it must pass through Congress's 30-day review period without objection and manage the qualitative military edge debate, whose rationale the State Department has not set out publicly.
What comes next
Congress's 30-day review period on the F-35 notification expires in mid-October; whether a joint resolution is tabled will be decisive. The OPEC+ meeting takes place on 4 October. The repair time for the East–West pipeline (days, or five to six weeks) and the operational capacity of the Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance will be watched.
Preference
Selling volume at high prices, granting Iran no new status quo in the strait, and moving its air power to the fifth generation.
Observed behaviour
Institutionalising security through US arms supply and regional alliances while using air power directly against the Houthis on the ground.