HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security20 October 2026, Tuesday · 00:09 TRT (UTC+3)
Saudi crude exports slide in early October as Ras Tanura falters
Saudi Arabia exported an average of 5.55 million barrels a day of crude on 1–15 October, according to Kpler, down from 7.16 million in September, the highest month of the war. The same day it emerged that Asian refiners had failed to agree 2027 term contracts with Riyadh.
Kpler data cited by the Saudi Gazette on 20 October show the kingdom's crude exports averaging 5.55 million barrels a day in the first 15 days of October. September's 7.16 million was the highest monthly level since the war began in late February; the February average was 7.33 million. The decline is concentrated on the Gulf coast. Ras Tanura loadings fell from 4.16 million barrels a day in September to 2.98 million, a drop of about 28%. Yanbu on the Red Sea loaded 2.34 million against 2.54 million in the comparison period, and other ports added 229,000 barrels a day.
A second rupture came the same day. OilPrice.com, citing Bloomberg sources on 20 October, reported that Asian refiners and Saudi Arabia cannot agree on 2027 term crude contracts. Refiners want cargoes bought on the spot market in 2026 to count towards term volumes, because the seller failed to deliver contracted cargoes this year. Riyadh argues that buyers did not meet their 2026 commitments and wants higher volumes for 2027. UA.NEWS said the dispute has slowed Asian demand for November-loading Saudi and Middle Eastern cargoes. ADNOC has allowed some buyers to count 2026 spot purchases against term volumes, but its 2027 decision is still open.
The routing picture has flipped twice in 2026. According to the Saudi Gazette, Ras Tanura stopped completely in April and May, and Yanbu carried about 93% of exports in June at 4.29 million barrels a day. When the East–West pipeline was targeted by drones launched from Iraq in September 2026, Aramco shifted flows back to Ras Tanura. The figures are Kpler ship-tracking estimates and may be revised after 31 October. The volumes in dispute and the number of refiners involved were not given in the 20 October reports and could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
September's recovery to 7.16 million barrels a day gave way to 5.55 million in the first half of October, with the loss coming from Ras Tanura on the Gulf coast. At the same time Asian buyers are refusing to commit volumes for 2027. The most likely path is Riyadh trying to defend volumes in the last 2 months of 2026 through delivered spot sales rather than term supply, with contract talks running past month-end.
Likely effects
- Asian crude supplyNegativeWeeks
With 2027 term volumes uncertain, Asian refiners struggle to plan January-loading spot cargoes; buying of November-loading Middle Eastern crude has already slowed.
- Saudi revenueNegative1–6 months
The 28% fall in Ras Tanura loadings and the risk of losing term customers tie the kingdom's net revenue per barrel to discounts on delivered sales.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
As Gulf exports narrow at Ras Tanura, Yanbu remains the Saudi outlet closest to the Mediterranean; supply costs for Turkish refiners depend more heavily on Red Sea security.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1A spot-heavy transition55%
Term contracts are signed late or at lower volumes at the end of October, and Aramco keeps selling delivered spot cargoes into Asia.
Watch: An Aramco–Asia 2027 term volume announcement by the end of October and the number of November-loading spot tenders
- 2Compromise restores volumes30%
Riyadh agrees to count 2026 spot purchases against term supply, and Asian buyers keep their 2027 volumes.
Watch: Aramco announcing a spot-to-term offset similar to ADNOC's
- 3Exports fall further15%
Ras Tanura loadings stay below 3 million barrels a day and the October average closes under 6 million.
Watch: Kpler's Saudi export data for 16–31 October
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Saudi exports 1–15 Oct▼ 5.55m b/d
- Ras Tanura month on month▼ −28%
- Yanbu 1–15 Oct▼ 2.34m b/d