Trackers disagree on Saudi exports by 1.6 million barrels a day

Kpler data cited by Asharq Business show Ras Tanura loading 2.95 million barrels a day on 1–25 October, against 4.16 million in September. According to Vortexa, Red Sea exports, mostly from Yanbu, rose from 2.4 million to 2.5 million barrels a day. The East–West pipeline shut after drone attacks on 10–11 September and restarted at reduced capacity on 22 September. A separate Bloomberg report based on Vortexa gives a figure above 7 million for the first 22 days; Gulf News notes that the discrepancy has not been explained.

The gap is more than a measurement problem; it is a constraint. More ships are switching off their position transponders, and cargoes are logged with a lag of several days. Bloomberg wrote on 21 October that Kpler put Middle East flows at 16.7 million barrels a day and Vortexa at 15.4 million. A Reuters report carried by CNBC said 2 out of 3 trackers saw Saudi exports rising in October, while in Gulf News's table both Vortexa and Kpler are below September. The two readings do not reconcile.

On the OPEC+ side, 3 sources who spoke to Reuters on 27 October do not expect Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman to change their December targets. No decision has yet been taken. The group finished unwinding a cut of about 1.65 million barrels a day in September, but physical supply did not rise by the same amount. An additional cut of about 2 million barrels remains in place until the end of 2026. The capacity audit that will set 2027 baselines has been delayed by the conflict, leaving the real policy decision to the 29 November ministerial meeting.