MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 November 2026, Monday

Indian-flagged vessel hit off Oman as October sets an attack record

The Indian-flagged cargo vessel Al Jusufi was struck by an unidentified aerial object off Lima, Oman, on 2 November; 1 of its 14 crew was killed and 13 were rescued. According to Lloyd's List, 2 more ships were hit the same day, and October's tally of at least 30 incidents set a monthly record for the war.

Location: LIMA, OMAN

Indian Shipping Minister Sonowal said the Al Jusufi carried 14 Indian seafarers; 1 crew member from Gujarat died of his injuries and 13 were rescued by the Omani Coast Guard. The Maritime Executive described the vessel as a dhow, a traditional wooden cargo boat, struck off Lima; the sources differ on the vessel type and the spelling of its name. The Week reports that at least 22 Indian seafarers have been killed in the war since 28 February. India's foreign ministry called for an end to attacks on merchant shipping.

According to Lloyd's List, 2 more merchant ships were hit by projectiles in separate incidents off Oman and Saudi Arabia on 2 November. There were at least 30 merchant shipping incidents in October, the highest monthly total of the war. The National counts at least 35 attacks for the same month; the two sources may use different counting methods. Insurance Business reported that more than 20 ships were attacked between 1 and 14 October, and that the IMO had recorded 106 verified incidents and 24 seafarer deaths over the course of the war.

This tempo feeds the insurance constraint. According to Insurance Business, the Joint War Committee is looking for a sustained run of incident-free transits before narrowing the listing, and the whole Gulf was still listed on 14 October. Hormuz war premiums were 6–10% of hull value in October. Three ships being hit on 2 November raises questions about what the 2-day reopening plan, which pushed Brent down the same day, means on the water.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Attacks continued on the same day as diplomacy and have spread down to small craft. The incident-free transit condition the Joint War Committee is looking for recedes at October's tempo. The most likely path is insurers keeping premiums high despite the reopening plan, and crew-supplying countries such as India hardening their demands for protection.

Likely effects

Marine insuranceNegativeWeeks
Each new incident delays any narrowing of the listed area and holds war premiums in the 6–10% band.
Crew supplyNegative1–6 months
The deaths of at least 22 Indian seafarers could make crewing Gulf voyages harder and push up wage costs.
Regional tradeNegativeWeeks
As small-craft traffic along the Omani coast is also targeted, intra-regional coastal trade contracts.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Tempo continues60%
More than one incident a week is reported in November too, and the listing and premiums stay unchanged.
Watch: UKMTO weekly incident count
2
Plan-linked calm25%
Agreement on the reopening plan halts attacks for several weeks.
Watch: No incidents reported in Hormuz for 14 days
3
Attacks escalate15%
Lives are lost on a large tanker or LNG carrier and cover is withdrawn under the 7-day clause.
Watch: Insurers' notices of cancellation of cover

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

October merchant ship incidents▼ ≥30
Ships hit on 2 November▼ 3
Seafarers killed (Al Jusufi)▼ 1

Historical context