MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints5 November 2026, Thursday
Suez Canal traffic hits its highest since the Red Sea crisis began
Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie said on 5 November that 1,490 ships transited the canal in October and revenue rose to $724 million. According to figures reported by China's state news agency Xinhua, this is the highest monthly traffic since the Red Sea crisis began in November 2023.
According to the statement reported by Xinhua, October 2025 saw 1,128 ships, 47 million net tonnes and $373 million of revenue. Ship numbers therefore rose 32% year on year, net tonnage 86% and revenue 94%; October net tonnage was 88 million tonnes. Rabie said he expects the trend to continue as most international lines keep up their transits. The canal is one of Egypt's main sources of foreign currency.
Tonnage growing almost 3 times faster than ship numbers shows that the returning traffic is made up of large vessels. The 10 largest container networks deploy 8.7 million TEU on Far East–Europe trades. According to a Metro Global analysis on 27 October, about 5.5 million TEU of that is now on the Red Sea route. Of 46 direct Far East–Europe services, 24 pass through the Red Sea; Asia–Europe services returning to Suez are about 7 days shorter on average.
The constraint is the security assessment and its price, the war premium. S&P Global data from 22 July put the premium at 0.5% of hull value for a Bab el-Mandeb transit and 0.1% off Saudi Arabia's west coast, against 7.5–10% in Hormuz on the same date. The data are about 3.5 months old, but the size of the gap explains the logic of the return. A route does not close until the premium becomes unbearable, and next to Hormuz the Red Sea premium remains bearable.
The risk has not gone away entirely. According to NBC, the Houthis seized the port of Mocha in September, seen as critical to controlling Red Sea traffic, and the siege of Taiz was continuing as of 6 November. Metro Global also wrote that the return is uneven and that the canal remains below its historical potential. A verified new attack on a merchant ship in the Red Sea will determine whether this $724 million month can be repeated.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Suez recovery owes less to the Red Sea becoming safe than to Hormuz becoming expensive while the Red Sea premium stays relatively low. October's record is strong support for Egypt's foreign currency position. The most likely path is that traffic keeps rising, but the Houthi advance in the south keeps the fragility alive.
Likely effects
- Egypt's external balancePositiveWeeks
Monthly revenue rising from $373 million to $724 million markedly boosts Egypt's foreign currency inflows.
- Asia–Europe freightPositive1–6 months
The return of about 5.5 million TEU of capacity to the Red Sea shortens voyages and adds effective ship supply, putting downward pressure on freight rates.
- TürkiyePositive1–6 months
Asia–Europe services that are 7 days shorter on average benefit Eastern Mediterranean ports and cut Türkiye's lead times for intermediate goods from Asia.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Recovery continues55%
The Red Sea premium stays in a low band, more lines return and monthly revenue holds around $700 million.
Watch: The Suez Canal Authority's November transit and revenue figures
- 2Houthi risk slows the return30%
Developments on the Mocha and Taiz front stoke fears of new attacks in the Red Sea, and some lines postpone their return.
Watch: UKMTO incident reports for the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb
- 3New attack on a merchant ship15%
A verified attack in the Red Sea makes the premium spike, and traffic shifts back to the Cape of Good Hope.
Watch: Bab el-Mandeb war premium quotes
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- October transits▲ 1,490 ships
- October revenue▲ $724m (+94%)
- Bab el-Mandeb premium (Jul)▲ 0.5%
Sources
- The Star (Xinhua) — Egypt's Suez Canal revenues rise 94 pct year on year in October
- Metro Global — Suez Canal return gathers pace
- Al Jazeera — How shipping insurance rates are rising, as Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb shut down
- NBC News — Airstrikes on a market in southwestern Yemen kill at least 30, Houthis say