MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints21 September 2026, Monday
RSF-led Tasis accuses Sudanese army of striking the pipeline carrying South Sudan's oil since 11 September: 7 dead
The Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasis), led by the Rapid Support Forces, said army drones and allied militias had struck the line carrying South Sudan's oil north of Al-Hamadi in South Kordofan since 11 September, killing 7 of its members protecting repair crews. The army did not respond; the claims could not be verified.
According to reports by Radio Tamazuj and Darfur24 dated 20-21 September, Tasis alleged that the Sudanese army had carried out repeated attacks since 11 September on the pipeline carrying South Sudanese crude, particularly north of Al-Hamadi in South Kordofan, causing explosions and fires along the line. The alliance said the force it had sent to the area to protect engineers and workers carrying out repairs had also been struck by the army, and that 7 of its members had been killed. A Tasis spokesman said attacks on civilian infrastructure violated international humanitarian law and could threaten relations between the two countries.
There is no statement from the other side: the Sudanese army and the South Sudanese government did not respond to the claims, and Radio Tamazuj and Darfur24 wrote that they could not independently verify the claims or the casualty figure of 7. The pipeline's importance is clear in the figures: according to Darfur24, it passes through the Heglig processing facilities and carries South Sudanese crude to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. On 4 June 2026 the undersecretary of South Sudan's Petroleum Ministry said the country was producing a total of 174,000 barrels a day from 6 active blocks; this figure is more than 3 months old and current production as of September could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
If the claim is true, oil infrastructure in the Sudan war is no longer just collateral damage but a front the parties target to cut each other's revenue channels. Because South Sudan's exports depend entirely on this line, the risk passes directly to Juba's budget. The army's silence and the lack of independent confirmation suggest the most likely outcome is for the line to keep operating with intermittent disruptions.
Likely effects
- South Sudan public financesNegativeWeeks
Every disruption on the line, the sole outlet for exports, directly reduces output, which had risen to 174,000 barrels a day in June 2026, and state revenue.
- Sudan–South Sudan relationsNegative1–6 months
The line becoming a military target strains the balance of Juba, whose exports depend on it, between the two warring parties, and strains relations between the two countries.
- Global supplyUncertainWeeks
Because South Sudan's volumes are small in the global balance, the effect on Brent remains limited; the risk is regional and fiscal in nature.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flow with intermittent disruption55%
The line is damaged from time to time but flow continues with repairs; the claims receive no official confirmation.
Watch: A statement from South Sudan's Petroleum Ministry on production or export disruption
- 2Exports halt30%
Attacks intensify, flow to Port Sudan stops and South Sudan suffers a force majeure-like disruption.
Watch: Reports that loadings of South Sudanese crude at Port Sudan have stopped
- 3Security arrangement for the line15%
With Juba's mediation, the parties agree on a local arrangement to protect the pipeline.
Watch: A joint security statement from Juba, Port Sudan and Tasis
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Losses announced by Tasis▼ 7 dead
- South Sudan output (Jun.)▼ 174,000 b/d