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RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt8 October 2026, Thursday · 14:30 TRT (UTC+3)

Official data put CBRT net reserves excluding swaps at 37.9 billion dollars

CBRT data for the week to 2 October, released on 8 October, show official reserve assets fell 3.8 billion dollars to 167.4 billion dollars. Net reserves excluding swaps dropped 2 billion dollars to 37.9 billion dollars.

Location: ANKARA

Dünya reported on 8 October that gross foreign currency reserves fell 1.237 billion dollars to 60.326 billion dollars, and gold reserves fell 2.578 billion dollars to 107.062 billion dollars. Net reserves, by contrast, rose 410 million dollars to 53.8 billion dollars. Net reserves excluding swaps strip out currency swaps with banks and show the central bank's true foreign currency buffer. That measure fell from 39.9 billion dollars to 37.9 billion dollars in a week. The official figure came in 200 million dollars above Matriks's calculation of 167.2 billion dollars on 5 October.

The international reserves template cited by Borsa Gündem shows liabilities coming due. Predetermined public sector foreign currency liabilities, meaning payments with a fixed schedule, rose 4.1% to 55.9 billion dollars. Total near-term foreign currency liabilities rose 1.2% to 123.7 billion dollars. The net foreign currency liability arising from CBRT swaps stands at 19.3 billion dollars. This template lists foreign currency reserve assets at 52.7 billion dollars. Dünya's gross figure of 60.326 billion dollars rests on a different definition, and the sources do not explain the gap.

A Cumhuriyet report on 8 October confirms the same gross, net and ex-swap figures. The sources do not break down how much of the 2.578 billion dollar fall in gold came from prices and how much from sales. Securities data released the same day show foreigners sold 484.7 million dollars of government domestic debt securities during the week.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Official data confirmed the Matriks estimate and put net reserves excluding swaps at 37.9 billion dollars. Net reserves rose 410 million dollars while the ex-swap measure fell 2 billion dollars, showing the buffer is being propped up by swaps. With predetermined foreign currency liabilities up to 55.9 billion dollars, the 22 October MPC will weigh a rate cut on a thinner buffer.

Likely effects

  • Exchange rate policyNegativeWeeks

    Net reserves excluding swaps fell 2 billion dollars in a week; the CBRT's own resources for holding the lira steady are down to 37.9 billion dollars.

  • MPC decisionNegativeWeeks

    The debate over a cut on 22 October now rests on a buffer below 40 billion dollars; if reserve losses continue, room to cut narrows.

  • External financingNegative1–6 months

    Predetermined foreign currency liabilities rising 4.1% to 55.9 billion dollars enlarge the scheduled payments that will draw on reserves in coming months.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Erosion slows50%

    Fund payouts ease the panic and net reserves excluding swaps hold flat in a 36–38 billion dollar band.

    Watch: Reserve data for the week to 9 October, due at 14.30 on 15 October

  2. 2
    Erosion continues35%

    Foreign DİBS outflows and domestic demand for foreign currency persist, pushing net reserves excluding swaps below 35 billion dollars.

    Watch: DİBS flows in the weekly securities statistics

  3. 3
    Recovery15%

    Foreign investors return to lira bonds and net reserves excluding swaps rise above 40 billion dollars.

    Watch: Two consecutive weeks of net foreign inflows into DİBS

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Official reserves (2 October)▼ $167.4bn
  • Net reserves ex-swaps▼ $37.9bn
  • Net reserves▲ +$410m
  • Predetermined FX liabilities▼ $55.9bn

Sources

  1. Dünya — CBRT data: reserves fall by about 4 billion dollars
  2. Borsa Gündem — CBRT reserve assets fall to 167.4 billion dollars
  3. Cumhuriyet — Sharp fall in central bank reserves: 3.8 billion dollars gone in a week
  4. Endeks24 — Foreigners pull 1.01 billion dollars from DİBS in three weeks