MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt15 October 2026, Thursday
CBRT reserves snap a six-week slide with a $4.2bn rise
Data released by the CBRT on 15 October show total reserves rose by $4.187bn in the week to 9 October, to $171.575bn. Net reserves excluding swaps climbed by $6.4bn to $44.2bn.
According to CBRT data reported by AA, gross foreign-currency reserves rose from $60.326bn on 2 October to $64.567bn on 9 October. Gold reserves fell by $54m over the same week to $107.008bn. According to Dünya, net reserves rose by $4bn to $57.7bn, while net reserves excluding swaps gained $6.4bn to $44.2bn. Total reserves nonetheless remain $46.6bn below the peak of $218.158bn reached on 30 January.
Equities are not where the money came from. According to CBRT data reported by Foreks, non-residents sold $248.2m of shares that week, taking two-week equity sales to $438.1m. In government domestic debt securities (DİBS), however, foreigners who had sold $484.7m the previous week bought $451.1m this time, lifting their DİBS holdings to $17.04bn. Adjusted for price and currency effects, the total still showed a net outflow of $865.1m.
The 100 basis-point cut that economists expect at the 22 October Monetary Policy Committee meeting fits this picture. In a Matriks survey concluded on 13 October, 32 of 37 economists expect the policy rate to fall from 37% to 36%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The turn in reserves shows that six weeks of erosion have stopped, but the base is narrow: foreigners brought $451.1m into DİBS while pulling $248.2m out of equities. The rise in net reserves excluding swaps to $44.2bn gives the CBRT limited room ahead of the 22 October MPC meeting. The most likely path is that the durability of the gain depends on the rate decision and on yield-seeking foreign flows.
Likely effects
- CurrencyPositiveWeeks
The $4.241bn increase in gross foreign-currency reserves strengthens the CBRT's capacity to hold the lira steady for a few weeks.
- Sovereign debtUncertainWeeks
Foreigners' return to DİBS with $451.1m supports the far end of the yield curve; but the money only counts as durable if it stays after a 100 basis-point cut.
- EquitiesNegative1–6 months
Foreign equity outflows of $438.1m in two weeks show that inflows rest on interest income rather than growth expectations.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Fragile recovery55%
Reserves move sideways or edge higher, and foreign DİBS flows slow after the cut.
Watch: CBRT reserve and securities data for the week of 22 October
- 2Renewed erosion30%
The cut squeezes carry returns, outflows from DİBS resume and reserves turn lower again.
Watch: Foreign DİBS holdings falling below $17bn
- 3Lasting accumulation15%
Foreign inflows spread to equities and net reserves excluding swaps approach $50bn.
Watch: Foreigners being net equity buyers for two consecutive weeks
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Total reserves▲ +$4.19bn
- Net reserves ex-swaps▲ +$6.4bn
- Foreign equity flows▼ −$248m