MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence2 October 2026, Friday
Pressed on CAATSA delay, Trump praises Erdoğan but offers no timeline
US President Trump referred to Erdoğan as his friend on 2 October when asked why CAATSA sanctions on Türkiye had still not been lifted. He had promised to lift the sanctions at the Ankara summit on 7 July. As of 2 October, no date or step had been announced.
CAATSA is the US law providing for sanctions on countries that buy weapons from Russia. In December 2020 Washington used it to sanction the Presidency of Defence Industries and its officials, citing the S-400 system delivered in 2019. Türkiye had been removed from the F-35 programme the same year. According to AA, when asked about the issue on 2 October, Trump said of Erdoğan 'I will always make him happy', but gave no date for lifting the sanctions.
According to Türkiye Today, Trump said on 7 July, during the NATO summit in Ankara, that the sanctions would be lifted. On 24 September Erdoğan called for concrete steps towards a return to the F-35. The same report said US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack had noted that the process was caught on congressional conditions. The report mentions 1 possible solution: transferring the S-400s to a third country, such as a Gulf state. As of 2 October, it could not be verified whether formal negotiations on this option exist.
The timing is notable. On 2 October AA announced that the KAAN prototype was being readied for its first flight before 2027. According to AA, CAATSA sanctions restrict export licences and financing. That is why the promise remaining unfulfilled for 3 months directly affects the procurement schedules of defence programmes that rely on US-origin parts and licences.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Trump's remarks on 2 October confirm the political will, but they also show that the 7 July promise has not been put into practice in 3 months. The knot lies not in the White House but in congressional conditions and the fate of the S-400. The most likely path is that the sanctions stay in place until the end of 2026, with the process tied to an S-400 formula.
Likely effects
- Turkish defence industryNegative1–6 months
Because CAATSA restricts export licences and financing, supply uncertainty persists for programmes such as KAAN that depend on US licences.
- Türkiye–US relationsUncertain1–6 months
Trump's personally warm tone preserves Ankara's diplomatic room, but without congressional approval no timeline for a return to the F-35 will emerge.
- Türkiye–Russia balanceUncertain6 months+
While a formula for transferring the S-400 to a third country stays on the table, Ankara carries a new bargaining file between Moscow and Washington.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Promise holds, sanctions stay55%
No formal decision to lift the sanctions comes by year-end; both sides keep the process alive with positive statements.
Watch: The Presidency of Defence Industries entry on the CAATSA lists of the US Treasury and State Department
- 2Partial easing via an S-400 formula30%
Licence restrictions are partly eased in return for the transfer or storage of the S-400, and F-35 talks open.
Watch: A sanctions waiver notification to Congress and an official statement on an S-400 transfer
- 3Congress freezes the process15%
Because of congressional obstruction or a new crisis, the issue drops off the agenda until 2027.
Watch: A new bill in Congress restricting arms sales to Türkiye
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Since the CAATSA promise▼ 3 months
- Age of the sanctions▼ 5 yrs 10 months