MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI6 November 2026, Friday
TSMC weighs a move into memory at Nvidia's request
According to The Information on 6 November, TSMC has begun drafting plans for 3D DRAM production at the request of Nvidia, its largest customer. The company is also looking at buying a fab to convert to memory production.
The Next Web, citing Bloomberg and Reuters on 6 November, reports that the work is led by Hsu Kuo-chin, the vice-president responsible for advanced packaging. 3D DRAM is a type of memory that stacks memory cells vertically. TSMC is weighing whether to build a new fab or acquire and convert an existing site; as of 9 November no production timetable had been set. The Taipei Times reported on 9 November that TSMC said it is focused on its core business and aims to be a reliable capacity provider in logic chips, without answering the memory question directly.
A memory shortage lies behind the move; according to The Next Web, Micron expects it to last until 2028. In October Nvidia asked Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron to make the base die of its custom HBM on TSMC's 3-nanometre process. HBM is high-bandwidth memory stacked in layers next to AI processors, and it sits at the centre of the 2026 shortage. TSMC's entry would add a new player to a market dominated by these three producers; Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The plan confirms that the bottleneck in AI hardware has shifted from logic chips to memory. TSMC's entry is unconfirmed and has no timetable; with the shortage stretching to 2028, a new memory fab is no near-term fix. The most likely path is that TSMC first expands its role in packaging and the HBM base die, while a decision on full DRAM production is deferred.
Likely effects
- Memory supplyNegative1–6 months
TSMC's entry will not ease a shortage running to 2028 in the near term; no timetable has been given for new capacity.
- Concentration in TaiwanNegative6 months+
A shift of memory capacity to Taiwan as well raises the risk of logic and memory being concentrated in a single geography.
- Korean memory makersUncertain6 months+
The prospect of a new rival entering the three-player structure tests the pricing power of Samsung and SK Hynix over the coming years.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Stays in packaging and base die55%
TSMC confines itself to the HBM base die and packaging in memory, and the DRAM fab decision is deferred.
Watch: TSMC's language on memory at its January 2027 investor conference
- 2Fab acquisition announced30%
TSMC announces a decision to buy a site and convert it to 3D DRAM production.
Watch: A TSMC announcement on acquiring a memory facility
- 3Plan shelved15%
TSMC sticks to its foundry model and formally rejects the memory plan.
Watch: A formal TSMC denial of the memory plan
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Memory shortage▼ until 2028