MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI29 September 2026, Tuesday
TSMC reportedly weighing second US hub in Texas with six fabs
Taiwan's Economic Daily News reported on 28 September, citing supply chain sources, that TSMC is weighing a second US hub in Dallas that could include up to 6 advanced fabs. The report said the investment could exceed the 265 billion dollars committed to Arizona; TSMC has not confirmed it.
According to TrendForce's round-up of 29 September, Economic Daily News wrote that TSMC had not responded to a request for comment as of 28 September. The report said several suppliers had heard similar talk, but TSMC had given no supplier instructions to prepare. The plan is described as a response to demand from customers such as NVIDIA, Intel, AMD and Apple for more production in the US. The Trump administration has renewed its threat of tariffs of up to 200% on chipmakers that do not move production to the US. US customers accounted for 75.64% of TSMC's revenue in the first half of 2026.
The Phoenix complex in Arizona is planned to have 6 wafer fabs, 2 advanced packaging facilities and 1 R&D centre. According to the report, 4 large companies manufacture in the Dallas–North Texas area: Texas Instruments, Coherent, Samsung and Tesla. MacTech carried the same claim on 29 September and recalled that Apple will buy more than 100 million chips from TSMC Arizona this year. The location in Texas, the number of fabs, the investment amount and the timetable could not be verified, as the company has not disclosed them. As of 30 September, the report should therefore be read as a source-based claim, not an official decision.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
If the claim is confirmed, the shift of leading-edge chip production out of Taiwan will gather pace; the threat of tariffs of up to 200% appears to be the main driver of the decision. TSMC has confirmed neither the location nor the amount, however. The most likely path is for the evaluation to continue and for an official decision to wait until US tariff policy becomes clear.
Likely effects
- Taiwan's bargaining powerNegative6 months+
A larger part of leading-edge production moving to the US could, over time, erode the strategic value Taiwan derives from chip manufacturing.
- US supply chainPositive6 months+
A second hub raises the share that customers such as NVIDIA, AMD and Apple can source inside the US and reduces exposure to Taiwan Strait risk.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
The geographic spread of advanced chip production reduces, over time, the single-point supply risk for chip-importing countries such as Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Evaluation continues55%
TSMC leaves the claim without comment, and an official decision is delayed until tariff policy becomes clear.
Watch: Statements on US investment at TSMC's next quarterly earnings call
- 2Texas is officially announced30%
TSMC announces a second US hub, and the investment amount exceeds that of Arizona.
Watch: TSMC board approval of the investment or an incentive agreement with the state of Texas
- 3Plan is shelved15%
Because of cost and labour constraints, TSMC chooses to expand Arizona instead of building a new hub.
Watch: An announcement of additional fabs planned for Arizona
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Arizona commitment▲ $265 billion
- US customer share, 1H26▲ 75.64%
- US tariff threat▲ up to 200%