LowIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence2 October 2026, Friday

Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia sign 13th defence protocol in Shusha

The defence ministers of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia held their 13th trilateral meeting in Shusha on 2 October and signed a protocol. Two days earlier, Türkiye and Azerbaijan had signed defence agreements worth more than $500 million.

Location: SHUSHA

According to AA, the meeting brought together Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler, Azerbaijani Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov and Georgian Defence Minister Irakli Chikovani. The 3 ministers discussed military and defence cooperation and then signed the meeting protocol. Hasanov described the trilateral format as an important platform for regional stability. The protocol's contents had not been disclosed as of 2 October.

According to Aydınlık, Türkiye and Azerbaijan signed agreements worth more than $500 million at the ADEX 2026 fair in Baku on 30 September. The package covers 14 HÜRKUŞ-II training and light attack aircraft, the type's first export. Defence Industry Agency head Haluk Görgün said the first deliveries would take place this year. The package also includes ASELSAN's Alp-100 radar, Baykar's Mızrak and Antidot systems and Roketsan's Barbaros coastal defence system.

According to JAMnews, ADEX 2026 drew 280 companies from 53 countries, and a jointly developed Azerbaijani–Turkish attack drone was displayed for the first time. The same source said Azerbaijan's State Security Service reported on 29 September that a soldier had left his unit in Lachin without permission. The soldier crossed into Armenia's Syunik region and wounded a woman in the leg at a house; Armenian officials detained him.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Shusha meeting shows Türkiye extending its defence ties in the South Caucasus beyond Azerbaijan into a corridor that includes Georgia. The package worth more than $500 million and the 14 HÜRKUŞ-II aircraft show those ties moving from words to contracts. The 29 September border incident in Syunik, however, is a reminder that the Azerbaijan–Armenia line remains fragile.

Likely effects

Turkish defence exportsPositive1–6 months
The first HÜRKUŞ-II export and a package worth more than $500 million expand the Turkish defence industry's order book in the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan–Armenia peace processNegativeWeeks
Azerbaijan arming itself with Turkish systems, together with the Syunik border incident, may deepen mistrust of the peace process in Yerevan.
Middle Corridor securityPositive6 months+
Trilateral defence coordination lends indirect support to the security of the energy and trade route linking Türkiye to the Caspian via Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Cooperation deepens with deliveries60%
The first HÜRKUŞ-II is delivered by year-end and the trilateral format keeps meeting regularly.
Watch: Announcement of the first HÜRKUŞ-II delivery to Azerbaijan by December 2026
2
Border incidents raise tension30%
Incidents like the one in Syunik recur, and Yerevan raises Turkish–Azerbaijani arms build-up in peace talks.
Watch: A new border violation protest from Armenia's Foreign Ministry
3
Georgia drifts from the format10%
Tbilisi steps back from trilateral defence cooperation to preserve its balance with Russia.
Watch: Georgia not taking part in the next trilateral exercise

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Defence agreements with Azerbaijan▲ >$500 million
HÜRKUŞ-II aircraft for Azerbaijan▲ 14
Trilateral meetings held▲ 13

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources